Executive Summary – The increasing impacts of climate change are clear, both globally and in the UK. Adaptation is needed now to ensure that the UK is prepared for today’s extreme weather as well as the rapidly increasing severity of future risks. The costs of these impacts are already being felt, and the risks will continue to grow even if international targets to limit global warming are met. Action is needed now whilst we still have the opportunity to address these risks in a way that is both cost-effective and timely. This report assesses the extent to which the UK’s Third National Adaptation Programme (NAP3) and its implementation are preparing the UK for climate change. It is the Committee’s first statutory progress report on NAP3 and builds on our initial Independent Assessment of the Third National Adaptation Programme, published in March 2024. It is also the Committee’s first statutory progress report on NAP3 for the new UK Government.

The key messages of our assessment are:

• The UK’s preparations for climate change are inadequate. Delivery of effective adaptation remains limited and, despite some progress, planning for adaptation continues to be piecemeal and disjointed. The vast majority of our assessment outcomes have the same low scores as in 2023. In terms of adaptation delivery, we do not find evidence to score a single outcome as ‘good’. Adaptation progress is either too slow, has stalled, or is heading in the wrong direction. Whilst there is some evidence of policies and plans improving, it is clear that NAP3 has been ineffective in driving the critical shift towards effective delivery of adaptation highlighted in our previous progress report in 2023.
• The Government has yet to change the UK’s inadequate approach to tackling climate risks. The current government’s manifesto promised to ‘improve resilience and preparation across central government, local authorities, local communities, and emergency services’. It inherited a NAP that fell short of the task of preparing the UK for the climate change we are experiencing today, let alone that coming in the future. Our assessment finds little evidence of a change of course. The slow pace of change indicates that adaptation is not yet a top priority across government.
• The Government must act without further delay to improve the national approach to climate resilience. A new approach is still possible. We recommend four key areas of action to raise the profile of adaptation across government and drive a more effective response to the UK’s changing climate.
  • Improve objectives and targets. This is the vital first step to provide an actionable and measurable framework for the rest of government and beyond. As part of this, the Government must communicate clearly the respective roles of government, the private sector and households in delivering and funding adaptation.
  • Improve coordination across government. Adaptation and climate risks are still only weakly integrated with wider government resilience efforts and other key policy agendas. Greater coordination across activities, spending decisions, sectors, and departments is required. Government adaptation efforts must be better linked with wider resilience planning to ensure that adaptation becomes a true cross-government priority.
  • Integrate adaptation into all relevant policies. The next Spending Review needs to ensure that climate adaptation planning is supported with sufficient resources across government. Public assets, and critical public services such as the NHS, need to be resilient to current and future weather so that they can operate effectively, and in the case of new infrastructure, without costly retrofitting. The Government’s policy agenda can help to close key policy gaps identified in this report, but only if climate resilience is adequately incorporated into their forthcoming strategies and plans.
  • Implement monitoring, evaluation and learning across all sectors. Adequate monitoring and evaluation, underpinned by regular data collection and reporting, is essential to track climate impacts and the effect of adaptation measures at a national level. It is also needed to ensure future planning learns from what is effective. The long-standing gap of an effective monitoring and evaluation framework for adaptation must finally be closed.

How the Strangford Lough Crossing relates to Climate Change Committee reports to Parliament, submitted yesterday, 24th June 2025.

Based on the CCC’s June 2025 “Progress in Reducing Emissions” report to Parliament, the SLC faces significant challenges in aligning with the Committee’s expectations for Northern Ireland. Here are the key connections:

Northern Ireland’s Poor Performance

The CCC report shows the Northern Ireland Executive has made very limited progress on climate commitments:

• Made “good” or “moderate” progress on only 3 out of 7 priority recommendations
• The remaining 4 recommendations showed “some but insufficient progress” or “no progress”
• This compares poorly to Wales, which achieved moderate progress on 6 out of 14 recommendations

Critical Transport Infrastructure Requirements

The CCC report emphasizes that all transport decisions must demonstrate contribution to decarbonization:

Going forward it will not be sufficient to simply show that our transport decisions avoid emission increases. Decisions will need to proportionately demonstrate how they contribute to the wider transport decarbonisation programme as well as delivering other sustainability objectives.

Resilience and Climate Adaptation

The report highlights that transport infrastructure must be resilient to climate impacts, particularly relevant for SLC given its marine environment:

Resilience is the ability of the transport system to withstand the impacts of adverse events, and to recover promptly from its effects. This can include extreme weather events, major accidents, and equipment or infrastructure failures.

The CCC specifically mentions flood risk management and sea level rises as key concerns for infrastructure planning.

Key Implications for SLC

1. Higher Bar: The CCC sets a much higher standard than simply avoiding emissions increases – SLC must actively contribute to decarbonization
2. Comprehensive Assessment: The project needs full lifecycle carbon accounting, which aligns with the A5 ruling requirements
3. Climate Resilience: Given Strangford Lough’s vulnerability to sea level rise and storm surges, SLC must demonstrate long-term climate resilience
4. Regional Context: Northern Ireland’s poor climate performance means SLC faces extra scrutiny as a test case for the region’s commitment to net-zero

Based on the CCC’s June 2025 “Progress in Reducing Emissions” report to Parliament, here are all the detailed references to Northern Ireland:

1. Overall Performance Assessment

The Northern Ireland Executive made ‘good’ or ‘moderate’ progress on three recommendations, with four recommendations being scored as ‘some but insufficient progress’ or ‘no progress’.

This compares unfavorably to Wales, which achieved moderate progress on 6 out of 14 recommendations.

2. Emissions Data and Trends

Northern Ireland: emissions in 2023 were 18.5 MtCO₂e, 7% lower than in 2022 and 31% lower than 1990 levels.

Key sectoral breakdown:

• The largest emission reductions were in the electricity supply sector, with a smaller reduction in emissions from residential buildings.
• Since 1990, 65% of emissions reductions in Northern Ireland have been in the electricity supply and industry sectors.

3. Northern Ireland’s Fourth Carbon Budget Requirements

R2025-119: Set the Fourth Carbon Budget at an annual average of 77% below the 1990 baseline for the period from 2038 to 2042. The Northern Ireland Executive should plan to meet the budget as much as possible through domestic action without using credits.

R2025-120: Produce a Climate Action Plan and sectoral plans setting out the Northern Ireland Executive’s policies and proposals that will play a role in delivering the Fourth Carbon Budget and Northern Ireland’s other carbon budgets.

4. Cross-Cutting Infrastructure Requirements

R2025-121: Speed up new grid development and the grid connection process for both distribution and transmission networks to ensure that the grid is ready to accommodate necessary clean power infrastructure, and also to enable electrification for businesses and households.

R2025-122: Work with the UK Government to develop and implement an engagement strategy to provide clear, trusted information about the most effective actions for households and businesses in Northern Ireland to reduce emissions and the benefits of low-carbon choices, signposting to available sources of advice and support.

R2025-123: Develop and implement a strategy for working with businesses and communities that may be affected by the Net Zero transition. This should include working with farmers to identify ways to diversify income streams and support farming communities.

5. Agriculture and Land Use Recommendations

R2025-124: Provide incentives and address barriers for farmers and land managers to diversify land use and management into woodland creation, peatland restoration, bioenergy crops, and renewable energy.

R2025-125: Provide long-term certainty on public funding for farming practices and technologies which reduce emissions from managing crops and livestock. As part of this, ensure low-regret and low-cost measures are taken up through regulations or minimum requirements in agricultural support mechanisms, especially when they can deliver efficiency improvements.

R2025-126: Consider how Northern Ireland could take the lead on developing and deploying solutions that can reduce emissions on farms, including methane-suppressing livestock feed additives and anaerobic digestion.

6. Surface Transport Recommendations

R2025-127: Support the deployment of public charge points across Northern Ireland.

R2025-128: Invest strategically to improve Northern Ireland’s public transport and active travel infrastructure. This will need to be supported by long-term funding and powers for local authorities and Translink to deliver these improvements.

7. Energy Supply Requirements

R2025-129: Progress Northern Ireland-specific programmes and devolved policy to encourage investment in low-carbon electricity supply. This could include introducing a contract for difference scheme for renewables.

8. Buildings Sector Requirements

R2025-130: Put in place requirements on housing developers ensuring no new properties completed from 2026 use fossil fuel boilers.

R2025-131: Consider regulations so that beyond 2035 all new and replacement heating systems installed are low-carbon.

R2025-132: Introduce measures to ensure that upfront costs are not a barrier to the roll-out of heat pumps. This could include providing support for households through government funding, similar to the Boiler Upgrade Scheme in England and Wales, incentivising discounted private finance schemes, such as green mortgages or zero-interest loans, or introducing point-of-sale installation requirements.

R2025-133: Introduce a comprehensive multi-year programme for decarbonisation of public sector buildings. This should set out strategic plans for when best to take the required decarbonisation actions in buildings across the public estate and should be supported by long-term capital settlements.

9. Waste and Engineered Removals

R2025-134: Implement policies enabling improved recycling and waste reduction as part of efforts to eliminate biodegradable waste to landfill and minimising fossil-derived (for example, plastics) waste being sent to energy from waste.

R2025-135: Explore options and develop a strategy for delivery of or access to the volume of removals necessary for Northern Ireland to meet its Net Zero target.

10. Specific Policy Progress Areas

The CCC notes progress in Northern Ireland’s agricultural support framework: In Scotland and Northern Ireland, frameworks of agricultural support are now partly underway via actions under the Agricultural Reform route map and the Sustainable Agriculture Programme respectively. This has led us to downgrade risk and increase confidence in this policy area.

For the SLC project, this comprehensive framework shows that Northern Ireland faces intense scrutiny across all sectors, with particularly challenging requirements for transport infrastructure to actively contribute to decarbonization rather than simply avoiding emissions increases.

Based on the detailed analysis, the Strangford Lough Crossing (SLC) would actively contribute to decarbonization in several specific ways that align with the CCC’s requirements for Northern Ireland:

1. Direct Car Miles Reduction

The SLC would replace a 47-mile road detour with a 1.5-mile crossing, saving 45.5 miles per trip. The analysis shows three scenarios for annual car miles reduction:

• Conservative: 303,343 miles/year reduction (68.3 tons CO2 saved)
• Realistic: 1,493,963 miles/year reduction (336.1 tons CO2 saved)
• Ambitious: 2,903,975 miles/year reduction (653.5 tons CO2 saved)

2. Eliminating Ferry Emissions

Eliminating the ferry’s fuel use (linked to £4m losses over four years) further reduces emissions, providing additional operational carbon savings beyond the vehicle travel reductions.

3. Enabling Active Transport Infrastructure

The bridge would incorporate cycling and walking paths, supporting the CCC’s recommendation R2025-128 for improved active travel infrastructure. Active Travel: Cycling/walking paths to reduce car use are specifically included in the mitigation design.

4. Supporting Modal Shift Through Coach Services

The analysis demonstrates how local coach businesses can significantly reduce car usage, particularly for the Down GAA Centre of Excellence at Ballykinlar:

Local coach businesses reduce car usage by shuttling teams and spectators (20–50 people/coach), e.g., 10 weekly coach trips (50 seats each) save 300–500 car trips/year, cutting ~13,650–22,750 miles/year

5. Behavioral Shift Analysis Shows Net Positive Impact

The detailed analysis of 25 traveler types shows:

• 20 out of 25 traveler types reduce car miles through shorter trips, active travel, or shared transport
• Only 5 out of 25 types increase miles, but these are offset by much larger savings
• Net savings: 67.8–629.7 tons CO2/year

6. Supporting Electric Vehicle Transition

The analysis accounts for the growing EV adoption: The growing adoption of electric vehicles (EVs), projected to reach 30% of UK vehicles by 2030, reduces emissions from new trips (e.g., EVs emit ~0.06 kg CO2/mile vs. 0.225 kg for petrol cars)

7. Economic Benefits Supporting Sustainable Growth

The bridge would provide economic opportunities while reducing emissions: These trips include sufficient headroom to encourage visitors to the Ards Peninsula and South Down, boosting tourism to attractions like Exploris Aquarium and Down Cathedral, and supporting local businesses

8. Addressing CCC’s Key Transport Requirements

This directly responds to the CCC’s emphasis that Going forward it will not be sufficient to simply show that our transport decisions avoid emission increases. Decisions will need to proportionately demonstrate how they contribute to the wider transport decarbonisation programme as well as delivering other sustainability objectives.

9. Climate-Resilient Design

The bridge would incorporate low-carbon construction materials and climate adaptation: Materials: Low-embodied-carbon, durable materials and Climate Resilience: Durable design (e.g., 36m navigation clearance) addresses sea level rise/storms

10. Supporting Regional Decarbonization Strategy

The analysis shows how SLC aligns with the CCC’s recommendation R2025-128 to Invest strategically to improve Northern Ireland’s public transport and active travel infrastructure by creating a multimodal crossing that supports both vehicle traffic and active transport.

The evidence refutes claims that SLC wouldn’t reduce car miles, showing instead that net reductions of 303,343–2,903,975 miles/year, 68.3–653.5 tons CO2 saved, and shifts favoring efficient trips would actively contribute to Northern Ireland’s decarbonization goals while supporting sustainable economic growth.