- BY Kevin Barry BSc(Hons) MRICS
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The NI/UK Five Case Model business case process, where the strategic need, broad options, and initial value-for-money case are set out
From a layperson view, the Northern Ireland Executive usually treats a requested scheme as a proposal to be tested, not a promise to be built.
In the context of SLC www.strangfordloughcrossing.org, SOC stands for Strategic Outline Case.
It is the first stage of the NI/UK Five Case Model business case process, where the strategic need, broad options, and initial value-for-money case are set out.
The broad steps are:
- Ask what the problem is.
The Executive/department looks at whether there is a real need, what policy outcome is being sought, and whether the request fits wider priorities. - Do an initial screening.
Officials check if the idea is worth progressing, proportionate, and within the department’s remit and budget context. - Prepare an early business case.
For significant spending proposals, the department uses Better Business Cases NI and the Five Case Model to test the strategic, economic, commercial, financial and management cases. - Engage stakeholders.
Departments are expected to map stakeholders early, keep contact regular, and build a shared view of the problem and possible options. - Consider options, not just one scheme.
The Executive normally expects a range of options, including “do nothing” or “do minimum,” before any preferred option is chosen. - Seek approvals.
The proposal is then taken through departmental and Executive approval routes, with DoF review for spending proposals above relevant thresholds or of sufficient significance. - Only then move to delivery.
If the scheme survives appraisal, funding, and approvals, it can move to design, procurement, and implementation.
In plain English: campaigners can request a scheme, but the Executive normally replies by asking, “What is the need, what are the options, what does it cost, who supports it, and is it good value?
For Strangford-style cases, the first realistic win is often not “build it now” but “commission a proper feasibility and options study.”
Hence we have reached that point and requesting that feasibility and options study, currently denied !
The details of the Strategic Outline Case (SOC);
Strategic Case ✅
Test: Is there a clear, compelling, strategic case for change?
- Clear strategic need: unreliable ferry, 75 km / ~90‑minute detour when unavailable; recent A20 storm damage confirms vulnerability of current links. ✅
- Strong alignment with NI strategic objectives: sustainable, safe, accessible transport; completing A2 coastal route; place‑based, multi‑objective infrastructure (economic, social, environmental, resilience). ✅
- Supports regional balance / levelling up: specifically targets Ards Peninsula, identified as having the lowest median wages in NI and weaker access to services. ✅
- Strong political and public support emerging: unanimous council motions on both shores for a feasibility study; cross‑party advocacy now visible in media and statements. ✅
Strategic Case – summary:
✔ Strategic need clearly articulated
✔ Strong fit with PfG‑type outcomes (connectivity, health, regional balance, climate)
✔ Clear local and growing political support for at least a feasibility/options study
Overall Strategic Case: PASS ✅
Economic Case ✅ (at “conceptual / outline” level)
Test: Does the proposal appear to offer good social value for money vs alternatives?
- Options thinking present: bridge vs continued ferry vs do‑minimum vs other fixed options; comparison work already framed in independent assessment. ✅
- Early quantified evidence: independent assessment suggests a cable‑stayed bridge at ~£300–£350m in 2025 prices, with a BCR in the region of 2.5–3.5 for the preferred bridge option using TAG‑style methods, i.e. “High Value for Money”. ✅
- Clear articulation of benefits: journey time savings, reliability, avoided detour mileage/emissions, improved access to jobs/healthcare/education, tourism and wider economic impacts over a long appraisal period. ✅
- Competing options like a tidal barrage/causeway indicated as poor value (BCR ~0.3–0.9), helping show the bridge is likely the economically preferred fixed‑link option. ✅
Economic Case – caveat:
- Not yet a formal DoF‑compliant Green Book business case; evidence is independent and indicative but directionally strong and structured in appraisal language. ⚠️
Overall Economic Case (for feasibility stage): PROVISIONAL PASS ✅
(“Sufficient positive evidence to justify commissioning a formal options & economic appraisal.”)
Commercial Case ✅ (for feasibility/options study; to be developed for delivery)
Test: Is there a plausible, deliverable commercial route?
- Precedent and comparators: reference to Queensferry Crossing, New Ross (RFK) Bridge and Narrow Water Bridge shows that similar or more complex bridges have been procured and delivered in comparable UK/Irish contexts. ✅
- Clear market for this type of work: major bridge and marine contractors, design houses and PPP/DBFM experience exist regionally and in GB/ROI. ✅
- Potential for multi‑modal / multi‑use concept (active travel, marina, energy) suggests scope for innovative but still standard contractual models rather than “one‑off experiments”. ✅
Commercial Case – caveat:
- No defined procurement strategy, risk allocation, payment mechanism or market sounding yet – appropriate at this pre‑feasibility stage. ⚠️
Overall Commercial Case (for study stage): PLAUSIBLE – TICK TO EXPLORE FURTHER ✅
Financial Case ✅ (for study; funding route for construction still to be worked)
Test: Is it (a) feasible to fund a feasibility/options study now, and (b) is there a realistic path to fund the project if justified?
- Order‑of‑magnitude project cost framed (~£300–£350m), explicitly benchmarked and far below earlier speculative figures; gives DoF/DfI a realistic starting envelope. ✅
- For study stage, required spend is modest relative to capital budgets; councils and MLAs are actively asking DfI to allocate funding for that work within current planning horizon. ✅
- Long‑term, scale is comparable to other NI/ROI strategic crossings now being delivered (e.g. Narrow Water), so not obviously beyond reasonable capital programme planning if economic case is confirmed. ✅
Financial Case – caveat:
- No confirmed funding source or profile; affordability vs competing priorities not yet tested in a formal capital budgeting process. ⚠️
Overall Financial Case (for feasibility stage): JUSTIFIES SMALL UPFRONT SPEND – TICK ✅
Management Case ✅ (for feasibility/options stage)
Test: Can a feasibility and options study be delivered with appropriate governance?
- Clear proposal for an independent feasibility and options appraisal with no presumption of construction, i.e. a defined, time‑bound piece of work that fits standard DfI/DoF project governance. ✅
- Obvious sponsoring and key stakeholders: DfI as sponsor (already operates the ferry), DoF as approver, Ards & North Down and Newry, Mourne & Down councils, plus strong community and political stakeholder base. ✅
- The campaign material already references strategic alignment, options, and economic indicators in a way that dovetails with Better Business Cases NI, making it easier to slot into existing appraisal and approvals processes. ✅
Management Case – caveat:
- No formal Programme/Project Board, PID, risk register or benefits realisation plan yet – but those are exactly what a commissioned study would set up. ⚠️
Overall Management Case (for study stage): CLEARLY DELIVERABLE – TICK ✅
One‑Page “Tick Summary” (for an SOC‑level briefing) Strategic Outline Case
Proposal considered: Commission a time‑limited, independent feasibility and options appraisal for a Strangford Lough fixed crossing, with no presumption of construction.
| Five Case Test | Simple question (SOC level) | Assessment for SLC website proposal | Tick |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strategic Case | Is there a compelling case for change and strategic fit? | Strong need, clear strategic alignment, strong local support. | ✅ |
| Economic Case | Is there credible evidence that a fixed link could be good VFM? | Independent analysis suggests high BCR for bridge vs. alternatives, justifying formal appraisal. | ✅ |
| Commercial Case | Is there a plausible way the market could deliver a solution? | Proven comparators and known supplier base for similar bridges. | ✅ |
| Financial Case | Is a feasibility/options study affordable and proportionate? | Modest study cost; project scale comparable to other funded crossings. | ✅ |
| Management Case | Can a scoped study be governed and delivered effectively? | Standard NI governance model can be applied; clear sponsor and stakeholders. | ✅ |
Overall Five Case Test (for commissioning a feasibility/options study):
✔ All five cases return a positive or at least “provisionally positive” answer based on the evidence and framing on strangfordloughcrossing.org and associated independent analysis.
Below is a half‑page style SOC “Five Case Conclusion”. It assumes the proposal at SOC is: “Commission an independent feasibility and options appraisal for a Strangford Lough fixed crossing, with no presumption of construction.”
Case Conclusion (SOC level)
The analysis undertaken to date indicates that there is a clear and compelling Strategic Case for commissioning an independent feasibility and options appraisal for a Strangford Lough fixed crossing.
The current arrangements – a time‑limited, weather‑sensitive ferry service and a 75 km / c.90‑minute detour via Newtownards when it is unavailable – present a recognised constraint to safe, reliable and resilient connectivity between the Ards Peninsula and the wider region.
A fixed connection has the potential to support a range of Programme for Government–type outcomes, including improved access to employment, education and health services, enhanced regional balance in one of the lowest‑wage parts of Northern Ireland, decarbonisation through reduced vehicle kilometres, and strengthened network resilience in the context of climate change.
At this early stage there is no approved Economic Case; however, independent assessment of a long list of options (including “do‑minimum”, continued ferry operations, various bridge forms and a tidal barrage/causeway) suggests that a cable‑stayed bridge option, at an indicative cost in the region of £300–£350 million (2025 prices), is capable of generating a Benefit–Cost Ratio in the “High Value for Money” range when assessed over an appropriate appraisal period.
By contrast, more intrusive options such as a tidal barrage appear to offer poor value for money, with low BCRs alongside higher environmental risk.
Taken together, this constitutes sufficient evidence to justify the proportionate next step of a formal, DoF‑compliant options appraisal in line with Better Business Cases NI and the Green Book.
There is, at this point, no developed Commercial Case or preferred procurement route; this is appropriate at SOC stage.
Nevertheless, delivery of comparable major bridges in the UK and Ireland, such as the Queensferry Crossing, New Ross (Rose Fitzgerald Kennedy) Bridge and Narrow Water Bridge, demonstrates that there is an established market capable of designing, constructing and maintaining a structure of this nature using standard procurement approaches.
The proposed feasibility and options study is itself a conventional, time‑bound commission that can readily be taken to market within existing public sector frameworks.
From a Financial perspective, while any future fixed‑link solution would require careful consideration of affordability and funding within departmental and Executive capital planning, the immediate requirement is limited to a relatively modest allocation to scope and deliver the feasibility and options study.
Given the scale of potential long‑term benefits identified, and the comparability of the notional scheme cost with other strategic crossings now being progressed, it is considered proportionate to incur this upfront appraisal expenditure at this time.
Finally, there is a credible Management Case for proceeding to a feasibility and options appraisal.
DfI would act as sponsoring department (reflecting its responsibility for the existing ferry service and regional transport planning), with DoF providing approvals in line with existing delegated limits, and Ards & North Down and Newry, Mourne & Down councils, together with community and environmental stakeholders, engaged through a structured governance and consultation framework.
Standard programme and project management arrangements – including a Project Board, risk and issues management, integrated assurance and proportionate post‑project evaluation – would be established in line with Better Business Cases NI guidance.
On this basis, it is recommended that the Department approves the development of an independent feasibility and options appraisal for a Strangford Lough fixed crossing, with no presumption of construction, as the proportionate next step in accordance with the Five Case Model.