16 Apr 2026

“Evidence is not ‘Nonsense’

A comment appeared online this week dismissing the suggestion that young families are leaving the Ards Peninsula because of the cost and inconvenience of the ferry, and that falling school enrolments are a consequence. The word used was: “Nonsense.”

I said I would prove it. Here is the proof. Every figure below is drawn from a named, dated, publicly available source. The evidence base is shown. People have to decide to believe or not.

1. The Population Is Ageing and Young People Are Leaving

The 2021 Census of Northern Ireland, published by the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA), records the following for Ards and North Down between 2011 and 2021:

  • The 0-14 age group fell from 18% of the population to 17%.
  • The 15-39 age group fell from 30% to 27%.
  • The 65+ age group rose from 18% to 22%.
  • The proportion of households with no dependent children rose from 70% to 73%.
  • One-person households rose from 28% to 31%.

Source: Census 2021 — Ards and North Down Local Government District, Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA), 2022.

The population did grow overall, by 4.5%, but that growth is concentrated in older age bands. The Peninsula is not attracting or retaining the young working families it needs to sustain schools, businesses, and community life.

2. Wages Are the Lowest in Northern Ireland

The reason young families leave for the mainland is economic. The work is not here, and where it is, it pays less. The NI Executive’s Sub-Regional Economic Plan Technical Annex (October 2024) records that:

  • The median gross weekly wage in Ards and North Down is £450.10 — the lowest of all 11 Local Government Districts in Northern Ireland. (Source: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, NISRA, as cited in Sub-Regional Economic Plan Technical Annex, NI Executive, October 2024)
  • The NI average is £528.90. Belfast is £596.80. Ards and North Down earns £78.80 per week less than the NI average.
  • Labour productivity is the second lowest in Northern Ireland at £47,957 per filled job, against a NI average of £55,364. (Source: Sub-Regional Labour Productivity, ONS, as cited in Sub-Regional Economic Plan Technical Annex, October 2024)

The Technical Annex notes explicitly that “low productivity persists despite strong performance on educational qualification indicators, which may reflect a large proportion of the working population in the area commuting to Belfast for work.”

Source: Sub-Regional Economic Plan Technical Annex, NI Executive, October 2024, pp.24-26.

In plain terms: our people are well-educated but poorly paid, because they cannot easily reach the jobs that would reward their qualifications. They commute to Belfast by road, or they leave entirely.

3. The Ferry Is the Barrier — and the Road Alternative Carries a Mounting Cost

The Strangford Ferry currently carries approximately 650 vehicles per day, operating at approximately 34% of its theoretical capacity. This figure is confirmed in DfI’s own formal briefing documents and cited in campaign correspondence with Minister Kimmins dated 4 October 2025.

To put that in context: DfI’s own Annual Traffic Count data for 2023 records the following vehicle flows on roads in the vicinity of Strangford Lough:

  • Count Point 444, A20, Portaferry Road, Kircubbin: 7,280 vehicles per day
  • Count Point 512, A22, Comber to Killyleagh, at Comber: 9,100 vehicles per day
  • Count Point 513, A7, Belfast Road, Downpatrick, at Quoile: 12,670 vehicles per day

These three count points together record a cumulative total of approximately 29,050 vehicles per day travelling on roads around Strangford Lough — against the ferry’s 650 vehicles per day crossing the narrows directly.

Source: Northern Ireland Traffic Count Data Summary 2023, Department for Infrastructure. Count Points 444, 512 and 513.

These are three separate roads serving different parts of the Strangford Lough area. They are not measuring a single alternative route, and not every vehicle in that cumulative total is a potential ferry user. The figure is presented here as a straightforward statement of road-based traffic volumes in the area, drawn directly from DfI’s own published count data, to illustrate the scale of movement taking place by road whilst the ferry carries 650 vehicles per day.

Those who avoid the ferry do not avoid the cost. DfI’s own internal briefing note, drafted by Mark McPeak, Divisional Roads Manager, Southern Division, dated 22 August 2024, and disclosed under the Freedom of Information Act (reference DFI-2024-0412), states that the alternative road connection “takes approximately 70 minutes to drive the 46 miles from Strangford and Portaferry.”

Forty-six miles each way. For a family making a daily school run, a commute to work, or a trip to a GP or hospital appointment, this is not a minor inconvenience — it is a recurring financial and time cost that compounds week on week.

Fuel prices in the United Kingdom have risen sharply in recent years. While this campaign does not produce its own fuel cost calculations, the consequence is straightforward: every mile driven that a bridge would eliminate is a mile paid for at current pump prices, currently among the highest sustained levels seen in a generation. For families already earning the lowest median wages in Northern Ireland, the 46-mile road detour is not an abstract transport policy matter. It is money leaving the household budget on every journey.

Source: Internal DfI briefing note, Mark McPeak, Divisional Roads Manager, Southern Division, 22 August 2024, disclosed under Freedom of Information, reference DFI-2024-0412.

The annual net cost of the ferry to the public purse is approximately £2.09 million: operating costs of approximately £3.52 million against fare income of approximately £1.43 million. That is the cost to the taxpayer of maintaining a service that the road traffic figures above demonstrate is marginal to the volume of movement occurring in the area by road.

Source: Freedom of Information disclosure, Department for Infrastructure, reference DFI-2024-0366.

4. Time Is Not a Luxury Families Have

The 70-minute road detour does not exist in isolation. It sits within the daily lives of families already under pressure. The NI Executive’s Sub-Regional Economic Plan Technical Annex records that 62% of workers in Ards and North Down travel to work by car or van. (Source: Census 2021, as cited in Sub-Regional Economic Plan Technical Annex, NI Executive, October 2024.)

The same data shows that a significant proportion of the working population commutes out of the district to access better-paid employment. For a family with children in school, a parent commuting to Belfast, and a 46-mile detour standing between home and the rest of the world, the arithmetic of the day is brutal. The ferry’s operating hours — from 07:30 to 22:45, with 30-minute frequency and no guaranteed boarding — add further unpredictability. A missed sailing is not a minor delay. For a working parent, it can mean a missed meeting, a late school collection, or a lost shift.

These are not anecdotal pressures. They are the structural conditions under which Peninsula families make the decision to relocate. The census data shows they are making that decision in increasing numbers.

5. Rural Demographic Decline Is an Island-Wide Pattern — But Connectivity Determines the Outcome

The GAA-commissioned report “No One Shouted Stop” (2025) documents demographic trends across the island of Ireland. It records that the number of children born across the island fell from 100,291 in 2010 to 73,478 in 2024 — a decline of 26.74%. It notes that “the decline in the number of children in more rural areas will continue and impact such areas to a greater extent,” and that “urban centres and their surrounding commuter belts show the highest concentration of young children… due to their larger overall population size and their function as magnets for young families seeking employment and educational opportunities.”

Source: “No One Shouted Stop” — Report on Demographic Trends and the Future of GAA Clubs, Gaelic Athletic Association, 2025, pp.48-49.

The Ards Peninsula is a rural area on the wrong side of a lough. Without reliable, permanent connectivity to employment centres, it will follow the demographic trajectory of every other isolated rural peninsula in these islands. The pattern is not fate. It is infrastructure policy. And in a period of sustained cost of living pressure, the friction imposed by a 46-mile detour or an unreliable ferry weighs most heavily on those with the least financial margin — precisely the young families this community needs to retain.

6. What a Feasibility Study Would Establish

This campaign does not claim a bridge will solve every problem. It claims that a feasibility study — estimated to cost between £250,000 and £500,000, representing less than 4 months of the ferry’s net annual subsidy — would establish whether a permanent fixed crossing is viable. The Department for Infrastructure has refused to commission that study, citing lack of economic justification, while simultaneously declining to commission the instrument that would test whether such justification exists.

That position is documented in DfI’s formal refusal, reference TOF-0467-2025, signed by Ian McClung, Head of Consultancy Services, DfI TRAM, dated 24 October 2025.

The two councils serving this community — Ards and North Down Borough Council and Newry, Mourne and Down District Council — have both now passed resolutions calling for a feasibility study to be commissioned. The campaign awaits a ministerial response commensurate with that democratic mandate.

The Evidence Is Not Nonsense

Every figure in this post is traceable to a named, dated, publicly available source. The population data is from NISRA. The wage data is from the NI Executive’s own published plan. The road traffic figures are from DfI’s own Annual Traffic Count data. The road detour distance and time are from DfI’s own internal briefing note. The ferry subsidy figure is from a Freedom of Information disclosure.

Families are leaving the Peninsula. Schools are feeling it. The cost of living and the cost of fuel make a 46-mile detour harder to absorb with every passing year. The evidence is there for anyone who wishes to read it.

If I am wrong on any specific point, I invite correction by reference to an equally named, dated, and retrievable source.

Otherwise, the ask remains unchanged: commission the feasibility study. Let the evidence decide.

Kevin Barry BSc(Hons) MRICS

Campaign Lead, Strangford Lough Crossing www.strangfordloughcrossing.org | mail@kevinbarryqs.com