The British Isles Infrastructure Bill: What Was Promised, What It Costs Now, and Why the Clock Never Stops

CPD — Continued Prolonged Delays

Moilleadh Leanúnach Fada

Published: 5 May 2026 | Updated: 6 May 2026 | Author: Kevin Barry BSc(Hons) MRICS | Category: Latest News

The Name Was Already Taken — And That Is the Point

CPD. In Northern Ireland, those three letters belong to a public body.

The Central Procurement Directorate — later rebranded as Construction, Procurement, Delivery — is the body within the NI Executive responsible for overseeing major public construction contracts. Its mandate, written into its own name, is clear: construction, procurement, delivery. That is what it is there to do.

The dashboard you are reading uses those same initials — Continued Prolonged Delays — as a general acronym chosen to highlight the core issues of cost overrun and delayed delivery in public infrastructure. Any similarity to the name or acronym of any existing organisation is purely coincidental and is not intended as a reflection on, or reference to, any such body.

That said, the record speaks for itself. The A5 Western Transport Corridor was announced in 2007 and not a metre of road has been built in nearly two decades. Casement Park was announced at £62.5 million and now sits at over £270 million with no confirmed construction date. York Street Interchange is estimated at around £300 million — more than double its original £130 million announced cost. The combined cost overrun on 40 NI schemes now stands at £5.01 billion — confirmed, official, and growing.

What This Dashboard Is — And What Existed Before It

Before the CPD dashboard, there was nothing.

No single place where a member of the public — or a politician, or a journalist — could look up what was announced for a major infrastructure scheme, what it costs today, and how many years late it is running. The information existed, scattered across audit reports, departmental press releases, Oireachtas committee transcripts, and Freedom of Information responses. But it was never in one place, never updated, and never expressed in terms ordinary people could feel.

I work with construction costs for a living. I read project announcements, I track budget movements, and I understand what happens when a major scheme stalls. What I could not find, anywhere, was a single place where someone had gathered the full picture — north and south, and across the wider British Isles — and laid it out clearly for the public who are paying for it.

So I built one.

The CPD suite now covers seven jurisdictions — nine dashboards in total, including a dedicated All-Island hub, a British Isles hub, and, as of May 2026, a standalone Australia dashboard that places the Australian Commonwealth and state infrastructure record alongside the British Isles for the first time. Every figure comes from an official published source. Every methodology is visible on each dashboard.

What We Have Built

What began as an All-Island tracker for Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland has become something considerably larger. The CPD suite now covers 280 schemes across nine dashboards — 40 per jurisdiction — with Australia added as of May 2026.

Dashboard	Schemes	Announced	Current Cost	Overrun
Northern Ireland	40	£8.28bn	£13.29bn	£5.01bn (+60.6%)
Republic of Ireland	40	€20.36bn	€45.56bn	€25.20bn (+123.7%)
Scotland	40	£28.82bn	£33.79bn	£4.97bn (+17.2%)
Wales	40	£13.01bn	£20.39bn	£7.38bn (+56.8%)
London	40	£29.58bn	£51.30bn	£21.72bn (+73.4%)
England	40	£28.10bn	£66.86bn	£38.76bn (+137.9%)
Australia	40	A$296.9bn	A$464.1bn	A$167.2bn (+56.3%)

Across the British Isles, approximately £/€128 billion was announced across the six jurisdictions. The current combined cost stands at £/€231 billion — a confirmed overrun of over £/€103 billion (GBP jurisdictions plus ROI in euro; figures are not currency-converted but reflect the scale of the gap in each jurisdiction’s own terms). The gap widens at roughly £77 every second on the GBP jurisdictions alone — approaching £113 per second when the ROI portfolio is included at current exchange rates. Australia adds a further A$161.89 per second on its active construction overrun portfolio. Those clocks run around the clock, whether anyone is watching or not.

Every figure comes from an official published source. Every methodology is visible on each dashboard. No figure has been invented or extrapolated beyond what the public record supports.

Northern Ireland — £5.01 Billion and Counting

In Northern Ireland, 40 schemes were announced at a combined cost of £8.28 billion. The current estimate stands at £13.29 billion — a confirmed overrun of £5.01 billion, or 60.6%.

The A5 Western Transport Corridor was announced at £844 million in 2009. It now sits at £2.1 billion — confirmed by DfI in October 2024 — and not a single metre of road has been built. It holds the unwanted distinction of being the longest single delay in the entire British Isles portfolio: 885 weeks and counting. Casement Park was announced at £62.5 million. It now stands at over £270 million — a 332% increase — with a funding gap remaining and planning permission expiring in July 2026. York Street Interchange carries an estimated cost of around £300 million against an original announced figure of £130 million. NI Water’s Lough Neagh Wastewater Programme was mothballed in December 2024 at a current estimated cost of over £2.1 billion, with no confirmed restart date.

Against that backdrop, there are schemes that have been delivered. Belfast Grand Central Station opened in September 2024 at a final cost of approximately £340 million — a large station that is now operational. The BRT Glider Phase 2 Outline Business Case was approved in December 2025 at an estimated £124.5 million, giving the scheme a funded pathway forward.

BCIS construction inflation continues to run at £10.35 every second on the undelivered NI portfolio.

Republic of Ireland — A Different Scale Entirely

In the Republic, the numbers are of a different order. Forty schemes announced at a combined €20.36 billion now carry a current estimate of €45.56 billion — a confirmed overrun of €25.20 billion, or 123.7%. Every €1 announced has become closer to €2.24 delivered.

The National Children’s Hospital dominates. As of the April 2026 Public Accounts Committee session, the hospital has missed its eighteenth confirmed deadline, carries 12,414 open defects, and has no confirmed completion date. The contractor claims process is ongoing. It is, by any measure, the most scrutinised construction project in the history of the state — and it remains unfinished.

MetroLink now carries total contract commitments of approximately €15.8 billion — a figure that has grown substantially since the original €3 billion announcement, and before the first tunnel boring machine has operated. Navan Rail is estimated at €3 billion. The M28 Cork to Ringaskiddy motorway moved into construction in January 2026, providing at least one straightforward piece of progress in a portfolio otherwise defined by complexity and cost growth.

SCSI and AECOM inflation runs at €36.13 per second on the undelivered ROI portfolio.

Scotland — £4.97 Billion Overrun

In Scotland, 40 schemes were announced at a combined cost of £28.82 billion. The current estimate stands at £33.79 billion — a confirmed overrun of £4.97 billion, or 17.2%. The percentage figure is the lowest in the British Isles portfolio, but it conceals individual scheme failures of significant scale.

The A9 Dualling from Perth to Inverness — 83 miles of upgraded trunk road — was originally due for completion in 2025. That date has moved to 2035 at the earliest, with costs growing from an original estimate of £3 billion to over £6.3 billion. The Ferguson Marine ferries — Glen Sannox and Hull 802 — were announced at approximately £97 million combined; final costs have risen to over £350 million against a backdrop of years of delay, public ownership intervention, and sustained political controversy. HMP Glasgow, the replacement for Barlinnie Prison, now carries a cost of over £800 million and has been delayed repeatedly. The HIAL Air Traffic Management System was abandoned after more than £30 million had been spent, with no replacement system delivered.

The CPD Performance Index places Scotland at 63 Combined — Critical status, the lowest combined score of all seven jurisdictions. Scotland records the worst delivery score (CPD-D: 68) of all seven jurisdictions — a reflection not just of individual project delays but of a pattern of stalled schemes across the portfolio. BCIS construction inflation runs at £3.22 per second on the undelivered Scottish portfolio.

Wales — £7.38 Billion Overrun

In Wales, 40 schemes were announced at a combined cost of £13.01 billion. The current estimate stands at £20.39 billion — a confirmed overrun of £7.38 billion, or 56.8%. Wales holds the distinction of recording the worst cost performance score (CPD-C: 45) of any jurisdiction across all seven tracked portfolios — including Australia.

The M4 Relief Road (Black Route) stands as the most prominent single failure: cancelled in 2019 after more than £130 million had been spent on design, environmental assessment, and legal costs, leaving no road built and no alternative delivered. The A465 Heads of the Valleys dualling has seen costs grow significantly across its phased sections, with sections delayed beyond their original timelines. The New Velindre Cancer Centre remains in development and procurement after years without confirmed delivery. The Swansea Bay Tidal Lagoon and the Circuit of Wales motorsport and energy complex were both cancelled, in each case after substantial preparatory expenditure.

That CPD-C score of 45 does not reflect the absolute size of the overrun alone. It reflects the proportion of schemes in the Welsh portfolio where cost control has broken down significantly — a disproportionate failure rate relative to the overall scale of the portfolio. The CPD Performance Index places Wales at 65 Combined — Warning status. Despite the worst cost score of all seven jurisdictions (CPD-C: 45), Wales’ strong delivery score (CPD-D: 78) lifts it above Scotland in the combined ranking. BCIS construction inflation runs at £1.61 per second on the undelivered Welsh portfolio.

London — £21.72 Billion Overrun

In London, 40 schemes were announced at a combined cost of £29.58 billion. The current estimate stands at £51.30 billion — a confirmed overrun of £21.72 billion, or 73.4%. In absolute terms, London’s overrun is the second largest of the GBP jurisdictions, sitting behind England and ahead of Northern Ireland, Scotland, and Wales.

The Elizabeth Line (Crossrail) is the defining reference point: announced with a target opening of 2018, it opened in 2022 — four years late — with final costs rising from approximately £15 billion to approximately £19 billion. The Thames Tideway Tunnel (the ‘Super Sewer’) moved from an original estimate of £4.2 billion to over £4.8 billion, though it remains one of the portfolio’s more straightforwardly progressing schemes. HS2 Old Oak Common continues to carry escalating costs as part of the wider HS2 programme. The Bakerloo Line Extension has been in active feasibility discussion for decades with no funding confirmed. The Four Lines Modernisation programme — covering the Circle, District, Hammersmith & City, and Metropolitan lines — has experienced both delay and cost growth across its delivery phases.

The CPD Performance Index places London at 70 Combined — Guarded status — above Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland, but below England and the Republic of Ireland. The relative score reflects a portfolio where projects are, by and large, being built and publicly reported, even where costs have grown substantially. BCIS construction inflation runs at £18.32 per second on the undelivered London portfolio.

England — £38.76 Billion Overrun

In England, 40 schemes were announced at a combined cost of £28.10 billion. The current estimate stands at £66.86 billion — a confirmed overrun of £38.76 billion, or 137.9%. That is the largest absolute overrun of any jurisdiction in the British Isles, and the highest percentage overrun of any GBP jurisdiction.

HS2 is the defining story. The original cost estimate of £37.5 billion has grown to over £67 billion for Phase 1 alone — with Phases 2a and 2b either cancelled or indefinitely deferred. The Lower Thames Crossing has grown from £5.3 billion to over £9 billion before a spade has entered the ground. Hinkley Point C has moved from £18 billion to over £35 billion, with completion now projected no earlier than 2031. The A303 Stonehenge Tunnel has been subject to repeated legal challenges and delays. The Transpennine Route Upgrade is running at over £11.5 billion and remains years behind its original schedule.

Despite carrying the highest absolute overrun of any jurisdiction — £38.76 billion at 137.9% — England scores 84 Combined on the CPD Performance Index — Stable status. The reason is precisely the same paradox that applies to the Republic of Ireland: schemes are eventually built, costs are publicly tracked and reported, and the public record is maintained. The index rewards that transparency and eventual delivery, however expensive. The CPD Performance Index does not measure whether value for money was achieved. It measures whether the public infrastructure system is functioning — and by that measure, England, for all the scale of its failures, is functioning. BCIS construction inflation runs at £43.29 per second on the undelivered English portfolio.

The CPD Performance Index — Two Scores, One Honest Picture

The dashboard includes a CPD Performance Index — but unlike a single composite score, it splits performance across two distinct dimensions: cost and delivery. This distinction matters. One jurisdiction is failing on cost. Another is failing on delivery. A single number obscures both.

CPD-C — Cost Index measures how badly budgets are being broken. CPD-D — Delivery Index measures how badly progress is being blocked.

In this index, higher is better. A score of 100 would represent perfect performance across all schemes in that dimension. A score of 0 would represent total failure. No jurisdiction achieves either extreme — but the spread is wide, and the patterns are instructive.

Jurisdiction	CPD-C (Cost)	CPD-D (Delivery)	Combined	Status
Scotland	56	68	63	🔴 Critical
Wales	45	78	65	🟠 Warning
NI	63	75	70	🟡 Guarded
London	69	72	71	🟡 Guarded
Australia	68	74	72	🟡 Guarded
England	88	82	84	🟢 Stable
ROI	86	85	85	🟢 Stable

Higher score = better performance

The paradox in that table is deliberate, and it is worth explaining. England and the Republic of Ireland score highest — Stable status on both dimensions. And yet England carries the largest absolute overrun of any jurisdiction (£38.76 billion on 40 schemes, 137.9%), and the ROI portfolio has overrun by €25.20 billion at 123.7%. How can the worst absolute overruns sit alongside the best index scores?

The answer lies in what the index measures. England and ROI score well because, broadly speaking, things get built — eventually — and costs, however excessive, are tracked, reported, and publicly documented. The index rewards transparency and eventual delivery. It penalises schemes that have stalled entirely, that have dropped off the public record, or where no credible delivery timeline exists. By those measures, England and ROI — for all their cost failures — are performing the function of public infrastructure delivery, even if at a price nobody originally agreed to.

Scotland sits worst overall at 63, rated Critical — the lowest combined score in the tracker. Wales scores 65, rated Warning. Scotland’s failure is primarily on delivery (CPD-D: 68 — worst of all seven); Wales’ failure is primarily on cost (CPD-C: 45 — the lowest cost score across all seven jurisdictions). That Wales CPD-C of 45 reflects not the absolute size of the overrun, but the proportion of schemes where cost control has broken down significantly — a disproportionate failure rate relative to the scale of the portfolio. Wales’ CPD-D of 78, however, is the best delivery score of any GB or NI jurisdiction.

Northern Ireland scores 70 combined, rated Guarded. The cost score of 63 is mid-table. The delivery score of 75 looks respectable until you consider what is behind it: schemes like the A5 that have not advanced in nearly two decades are not failing on delivery in a conventional sense — they are simply not being built at all. The deeper political and institutional problem in NI is not cost overrun. It is inaction.

The comparison that matters most: the Republic spends recklessly. Northern Ireland struggles to spend at all. Australia spends at scale but builds at pace. A single combined score would suggest similar levels of failure across the British Isles pair. The split index shows they are failing in entirely different ways — and that different remedies are required.

What the Dashboard Is — and Is Not

This is not a political argument. It does not attribute blame to any party or any minister. Every figure comes from an official source — DfI, NIAO, TII, the Comptroller and Auditor General, the NTA, the Health Trusts, the NAO, Transport Scotland, Audit Wales, and others. What the dashboard does is organise the public record and make it visible in one place.

The clocks run because construction inflation is real and continuous. They are not designed to alarm. They are designed to make delay tangible — in pounds and euros, per second, every day, whether anyone is watching or not. The NI clock runs at £10.35 per second. The ROI clock runs at €36.13 per second. Scotland runs at £3.22 per second. Wales runs at £1.61 per second. London runs at £18.32 per second. The England clock runs at £43.29 per second. The Australia clock runs at A$161.89 per second — a figure that reflects the sheer scale of the active Australian construction portfolio and the 4.5% annual inflation rate embedded in the industry since 2020. None of them pause for planning appeals, political instability, or procurement delays.

The average delay across the 240 British Isles schemes is 307 weeks — approximately six years per scheme. Across the Australian portfolio of 40 schemes, the average delay is 142 weeks — approximately two and three quarter years. The longest single delay, as noted above, is the A5 at 885 weeks. These are not outliers that distort an otherwise reasonable picture. They are representative of a pattern that repeats across every jurisdiction, at every scale, in every decade of the data.

The methodology behind the CPD Performance Index is published in full on each dashboard. Every weighting, every input, every calculation is visible. It is not a political verdict. It is a professional one.

Australia — A$167 Billion and Counting

The addition of Australia to the CPD suite in May 2026 was prompted by a straightforward question: is the pattern of cost overrun and delayed delivery that characterises the British Isles a uniquely British and Irish phenomenon, or does it appear in other comparable economies with similar institutional frameworks?

The answer, on the evidence of 40 official Australian projects, is unambiguous. It appears. At scale.

Forty Australian schemes — drawn from federal, state and territory portfolios and sourced exclusively from the Australian National Audit Office (ANAO), the Victorian Auditor-General’s Office (VAGO), and state audit offices in Queensland, Western Australia, South Australia and the ACT — were announced at a combined A$296.9 billion. The current estimated cost stands at A$464.1 billion. The confirmed overrun is A$167.2 billion — a 56.3% increase.

The headline cases are striking in their own right:

• Darwin Ship Lift (Northern Territory): announced at A$100 million in 2015 without a full business case. Current cost: A$820 million — an 820% increase — and still incomplete. The NT Public Accounts Committee found in August 2025 that the government has no right to revenue from the facility it is funding, as the private operator retains all commercial benefit.
• Perth METRONET: Labor’s 2017 election commitment of A$3 billion. Current cost: A$15.5 billion — a 417% increase. Several lines remain unbuilt as at mid-2026.
• Snowy Hydro 2.0: announced by Prime Minister Turnbull in 2017 at A$2 billion, with power generation to commence in 2021. Current cost: A$12 billion — a 500% increase. As of early 2026, tunnelling is 70% complete and Snowy Hydro is seeking further government funding. The project is seven years behind its original timeline.
• Cross River Rail (Brisbane): promised at A$5.4 billion by 2024. Confirmed in October 2025 at A$19.041 billion — a 253% overrun — with completion now projected for 2029, five years late.
• Sydney Metro West: the most expensive metro project in Australian history. Business case estimate of A$12–13 billion has grown to A$27–29 billion, with a 2032 opening now the official target — five to seven years later than originally committed.
• Inland Rail: the 1,700 km Melbourne to Brisbane freight corridor. The 2015 business case estimated A$9.9 billion. The 2023 independent review put costs at A$31.4 billion — calling the blowout “astonishing” — and construction began, reportedly, without knowing where the line would start or finish. A 2026 review by ACIL Allen estimated costs exceeding A$45 billion; the Albanese government axed further funding in May 2026.

Not every project has failed. ACT Light Rail Stage 1 was delivered at A$675 million — A$108 million under its original business case estimate of A$783 million. Sydney Metro Northwest came in at approximately A$7.8 billion against an announced cost of A$8.3 billion. Toowoomba Second Range Crossing was delivered on time and on its A$1.6 billion budget. These cases exist, they are documented, and they are included in the dataset.

But they are the exception. Australia’s world-class audit infrastructure — ANAO, VAGO, and active state audit offices in every jurisdiction — documents the overruns with the same rigour that the NAO does in England and the C&AG does in the Republic of Ireland. The record is publicly available. The pattern it reveals is consistent: premature political announcements, undercooked business cases, and construction markets under severe capacity pressure produce overruns and delays as reliably in Australia as they do in Northern Ireland or Wales.

Professor Bent Flyvbjerg’s Oxford megaproject database — the most comprehensive cross-national study of its kind — identifies what he calls the Iron Law of Megaprojects: nine out of ten projects have cost overruns; overruns of 50% are common, and over 50% are not uncommon. Australia’s portfolio overrun of 56.3% is, by that measure, entirely typical of the global pattern. The Grattan Institute’s 2020 analysis of all Australian transport projects over A$20 million completed since 2001 found that governments had spent A$34 billion more than first promised — a 21% average overrun — with megaprojects exceeding their budgets by 30% on average.

How does Australia score on the CPD Performance Index?

Australia records a combined score of 72 — Guarded status. CPD-C (cost) is 68, CPD-D (delivery) is 74.

That places Australia between London (71) and Northern Ireland (70) in the combined ranking. There are several observations worth making about that position.

First, the cost score of 68 is a reasonable reflection of a 56.3% portfolio overrun — comparable to NI (60.6% overrun, CPD-C 63) and Wales (56.8% overrun, CPD-C 45). The higher score relative to Wales reflects the transparency premium: Australia’s overruns are documented comprehensively and publicly by audit institutions that are genuinely independent and well-resourced. Wales, by contrast, has a lower cost score in part because the pattern of breakdown is more concentrated and less evenly distributed across the portfolio.

Second, the delivery score of 74 is — perhaps counterintuitively — stronger than any GB or NI jurisdiction except Wales (78) and England (82). That is because 37.5% of the 40 Australian schemes are either completed or on track — a higher rate than any of the British Isles jurisdictions. Several of those completions are late and over budget, but they are completed. The infrastructure was built. That matters to the index.

Third, Australia’s average delay of 142 weeks — approximately two and three quarter years — is substantially lower than any British Isles jurisdiction. NI’s average delay is 312 weeks. Scotland’s is 390 weeks. England’s is 384 weeks. The comparison is striking and warrants caution: Australia’s portfolio includes more recently initiated projects, and the very longest delays (Snowy Hydro at 365 weeks, Inland Rail at 200+ weeks) are already captured. But the pattern of delay, while serious, has not yet compounded to the extent it has in jurisdictions where schemes from the 1990s and 2000s are still running.

The comparison that is perhaps most instructive for a Northern Ireland reader is this: Australia’s confirmed overrun of A$167 billion in AUD terms translates at current exchange rates to approximately £87 billion — nearly three times NI’s entire confirmed overrun on a portfolio roughly five times as large. The failure is proportionally similar. The institutions tracking it are more functional. The question it raises for every jurisdiction in this tracker is the same one it raises in Canberra and Sydney: why does the pattern persist, when the evidence of its existence has been in plain sight for decades?

The Australia dashboard is now live as part of the CPD British Isles + Australia hub. All 40 schemes are drillable, sourced, and visible.

What CPD Might Achieve

There is no public accountability tool like this anywhere in the British Isles. That absence has consequences. When overruns accumulate slowly — a few percent here, a revised timeline there — they are individually justifiable. Aggregated and displayed in real time, they become something else: a record of systemic failure that is difficult to unsee.

If CPD achieves anything, it is this: the next time a minister announces a major infrastructure scheme at a figure that bears no relationship to what it will actually cost, someone will be able to show — clearly, publicly, and with official sources — exactly how that story has played out before. Every time. Across seven jurisdictions. Going back decades.

The data shows how far ambition and reality have diverged. The record is now public.

CPD — Continued Prolonged Delays · Moilleadh Leanúnach Fada
Kevin Barry BSc(Hons) MRICS · QuintinQS · Belfast
Published: 5 May 2026 | Updated: 6 May 2026

All figures sourced from official published data: DfI · NIAO · TII · C&AG · NTA · NAO · Transport Scotland · Audit Wales · Public Accounts Committee (ROI) · SCSI · AECOM · BCIS · ANAO · VAGO · Queensland Audit Office · WA Office of the Auditor General · SA Auditor-General · ACT Auditor-General · Infrastructure Australia · Grattan Institute

Dashboards:

British Isles + Australia Hub: ktbcpdbritishisles.netlify.app

Northern Ireland: ktbcpdni.netlify.app

Republic of Ireland: ktbroicpd.netlify.app

Scotland: ktbcpdscotland.netlify.app

Wales: ktbcpdwales.netlify.app

London: ktbcpdlondon.netlify.app

England: ktbcpdengland.netlify.app

Australia: ktbcpdaustralia.netlify.app

All-Island Hub: ktbcpdallisland.netlify.app