05 May 2026

The British Isles Infrastructure Bill: What Was Promised, What It Costs Now, and Why the Clock Never Stops

Published: 5 May 2026 | Author: Kevin Barry BSc(Hons) MRICS | Category: Latest News

The British Isles Infrastructure Bill: 240 Schemes, Six Jurisdictions, One Uncomfortable Picture

By Kevin Barry, Quantity Surveyor — Belfast, Northern Ireland

When I published the CPD All-Island Dashboard at the end of April, I said the British mainland was next. It has not taken long to find out that the pattern is identical — and in some cases considerably worse.

The CPD tracker now covers 240 major infrastructure schemes across six jurisdictions: Northern Ireland, the Republic of Ireland, Scotland, Wales, London, and England. That is up from 120 schemes when the All-Island Dashboard launched — 40 schemes per jurisdiction, selected because they are real, publicly documented, and between them represent the vast majority of capital infrastructure spend across these islands. The gap between what was announced and what is actually being delivered has not narrowed. It has grown — and it has grown at a scale that should be difficult for anyone working in public spending to ignore.

(Click on CPD images for Dashboards)

The British Isles Hub consolidates all six trackers into a single view. The live cost clocks run continuously. They do not pause for planning inquiries, ministerial reshuffles, or procurement delays. Neither does construction inflation.

How the Scoring Works — A Reminder

The CPD Performance Index scores each jurisdiction on two dimensions: CPD-C (cost performance) and CPD-D (delivery performance). The scoring is inverse: higher is worse. A score of 100 represents the worst possible position. A score of 0 is perfect delivery at announced cost.

Status thresholds are set as follows:

Critical — Combined score ≥ 75
Warning — Combined score 60–74
Guarded — Combined score 45–59
Stable — Combined score < 45

No jurisdiction is currently Stable. That is not a rhetorical point. It is the data.

England — CPD Combined: 85 🔴 Critical

England’s 40-scheme portfolio is, by any measure, the most expensive infrastructure story on these islands. Schemes were announced at a combined £28.10 billion. The current estimate stands at £66.86 billion — a confirmed overrun of £38.76 billion, or 137.9%. The cost clock runs at £43.29 every second on the undelivered portfolio.

HS2 Phase 1 alone moved from a £37.5 billion estimate to a current range of £45–54 billion — and Phase 2b was cancelled outright after spending in excess of £2 billion. Hinkley Point C has doubled from £18 billion to over £35 billion with the end date pushed back repeatedly. The Lower Thames Crossing has gone from £5.3 billion to £10.6 billion before a spade has broken ground. Sizewell C, smart motorway rollout reversal, the Emergency Services Network programme — the list of English infrastructure schemes in difficulty is not a short one.

The 40 schemes tracked are: HS2 Phase 1 · HS2 Phase 2a · HS2 Phase 2b (cancelled) · Transpennine Route Upgrade · Lower Thames Crossing · A303 Stonehenge Tunnel · A428 Black Cat–Caxton Gibbet · A14 Cambridge–Huntingdon · East West Rail/Oxford–Cambridge Arc · Sizewell C · Hinkley Point C · Bradwell B · Manchester Metrolink · West Yorkshire Mass Transit · Birmingham Midland Metro · East Midlands Rail Hub · Emergency Services Network · Thameslink · Northern Powerhouse Rail · Heathrow Third Runway · Bristol Temple Meads · A66 Trans-Pennine Dualling · Smart Motorway Pause · Levelling Up Fund · Grenfell Tower Memorial · Mersey Tidal Power · Boston Barrier · Lincoln Eastern Bypass · National Highways RIS1 · Midland Mainline Upgrade · TransPennine Express Fleet · A358 Taunton–Southfields · RAAC Schools England · Tyne & Wear Metro Fleet · East Coast Digital/ERTMS · Cambridge Biomedical Campus · Manchester Airport T2 · Leeds City Region Transport · A57 Trans-Pennine Snake Pass · (scheme 40).

CPD-C: 88 | CPD-D: 82 | Combined: 85 — Critical

Republic of Ireland — CPD Combined: 86 🔴 Critical

ROI takes the worst position in the British Isles rankings on combined CPD score. Forty schemes were announced at a combined €20.36 billion. The current estimate is €45.56 billion — a confirmed overrun of €25.20 billion, or 123.7%. The cost clock runs at €36.13 every second.

The National Children’s Hospital remains the headline. Announced at €637 million, it has reached €2.24 billion confirmed, with €899 million in contractor claims submitted and only €53 million approved to date. MetroLink was announced at €3 billion and now stands at €9.5 billion on a 2021 TII estimate — before a single metre of tunnel has been bored. DART+ South West has moved from €1.25 billion to €4.55 billion, a 264% increase.

The counterintuitive finding remains the same as in the All-Island analysis: ROI’s crisis is almost entirely one of cost. The Republic is building things — MetroLink is in procurement, Luas Finglas is under construction, Cork Area Commuter Rail is progressing — but the price at which it is building them has become the dominant story in Irish public infrastructure.

The 40 schemes tracked are: National Children’s Hospital · MetroLink Dublin · DART+ · M20 Cork–Limerick · BusConnects Dublin · Cork BusConnects · Galway City Ring Road · National Broadband Plan · Cork Commuter Rail · Shannon LNG · Connecting Ireland · N5 Westport–Turlough · Dublin Airport T2 · Limerick Flood Relief · M28 Cork–Ringaskiddy · Grangegorman TU Dublin · N22 Ballyvourney–Macroom · Cork Event Centre · N56 Donegal Roads · National Forensic Mental Health Portrane · Luas Cross City · N4 Mullingar–Roosky · Dunkettle Interchange · A5 Cross-Border ROI · National Maternity Hospital · Celtic Interconnector · Rural Regeneration Fund · East Link Bridge Replacement · N11/M11 Bray–Rosslare · Navan–Dublin Rail · Ireland 2040 Framework · Dublin Waste to Energy Poolbeg · Irish Water AMP1 · N/M17/N18 Gort–Tuam · EirGrid Grid25 · National Concert Hall Dublin · Limerick Northern Distributor · Cork Port Expansion · National Data Infrastructure · Finglas–Luas Connection.

CPD-C: 86 | CPD-D: 85 | Combined: 86 — Critical

London — CPD Combined: 70 🟡 Warning

London’s 40-scheme portfolio was announced at £29.58 billion and now stands at £51.30 billion — an overrun of £21.72 billion, or 73.4%. The cost clock runs at £18.32 per second.

Crossrail/Elizabeth Line is the defining case: announced at £14.8 billion, delivered at approximately £19 billion, and opened three and a half years late. But it was delivered. That is the distinction that keeps London’s CPD-D score in Warning rather than Critical territory. The Piccadilly Line Upgrade, Four Lines Modernisation, and Bakerloo Line Extension remain the schemes of most concern — the latter with no confirmed start date and a budget that has moved with every iteration of the business case. Hammersmith Bridge has been closed to traffic since 2019. Heathrow Third Runway exists in the same political limbo it has occupied for the better part of a generation.

The 40 schemes tracked are: Crossrail/Elizabeth Line · Piccadilly Line Upgrade · Four Lines Modernisation · Hammersmith Bridge · Silvertown Tunnel · Tideway Tunnel · HS2 Old Oak Common · Bakerloo Line Extension · DLR Upgrade · London Overground Expansion · Northern Line Extension Battersea · A102 Silvertown · London Bridge Station · Stratford Waterfront/Here East · Old Street Roundabout · Elephant & Castle · Earls Court · Silvertown Quays/Royal Docks · A406 North Circular · Elizabeth Line Full Running · Santander Cycles Expansion · ULEZ Expansion · Rotherhithe–Canning Town Tunnel · New Covent Garden Market · Tottenham Hale Station · RAAC Schools London · Meridian Water Enfield · Old Oak Common HS2/Elizabeth Interchange · London Stadium Legacy · Canary Wharf Crossrail Place · Beddington Energy from Waste · Beam Park/Dagenham Dock · Royal Hospital Chelsea · Wandsworth/Nine Elms Cluster · A13 Stanford–Tilbury · Highbury Corner Roundabout · Gospel Oak–Barking Electrification · ESN London · Heathrow Third Runway · Vauxhall Nine Elms Battersea.

CPD-C: 69 | CPD-D: 72 | Combined: 70 — Warning

Northern Ireland — CPD Combined: 67 🟡 Warning

Northern Ireland’s position has not improved since the All-Island analysis. Forty schemes are now tracked, announced at a combined £6.56 billion and currently estimated at £10.42 billion — a confirmed overrun of £3.86 billion, or 58.8%. The cost clock runs at £10.85 per second.

The A5 Western Transport Corridor was announced at £844 million in 2007. It now sits at £2.1 billion — confirmed by DfI in October 2024 — and not a single metre of road has been built in nearly two decades. Casement Park was announced at £62.5 million and now sits at over £270 million, a 332% increase, with a funding gap remaining and planning permission that required renewal. York Street Interchange has been paused. The Enniskillen hospital programme continues to carry the weight of its PFI structure alongside the suspended surgical services question.

On the positive side, the Narrow Water Bridge is genuinely on track. Construction began in May 2024 with BAM Ireland as contractor. The scheme is confirmed at £84 million and is on course for completion in late 2027. It is one of the more straightforward delivery stories in the NI portfolio — and it matters, because it demonstrates that NI can build cross-border infrastructure when the political conditions allow it.

The 40 schemes tracked are: A5 Western Transport Corridor · A6 Randalstown–Castledawson Dualling · York Street Interchange · Casement Park Stadium · North South Interconnector · Belfast Transport Hub (GCS Phase 1) · Narrow Water Bridge · Belfast City Deal · South Eastern Bus Corridor Phase 2 · Derry/Londonderry City Deal · Enniskillen Hospital (SWAH Phase 1) · Greater Belfast Metropolitan Transport Plan · RAAC Concrete Schools · NIE Networks Grid Upgrade · A2 Belfast to Bangor · Ulster University Belfast Campus · Belfast Waterfront Hall Extension · Grand Central Station Phase 2 · A26 Frosses Road · Strule Arts Centre Omagh · South West Acute Hospital Phase 2 · A1 Newry–Dublin Junction · Glider Phase 2 · Project Stratum Broadband · Belfast Interface Regeneration · Derry North West Transport Hub · A4 Dungannon–Ballygawley · Causeway Hospital Coleraine · Newry Southern Relief Road · NI Water AMP8/9 · Altnagelvin Radiotherapy Centre · Belfast City Airport Link Road · Omagh Hospital & Primary Care · A2 Buncrana Road Derry · North Belfast Social Housing · Olympia Leisure Centre Belfast · Daisy Hill Hospital Newry · Magee Campus Derry · A32 Enniskillen–Omagh Bypass · Strangford Lough Crossing Feasibility.

CPD-C: 61 | CPD-D: 72 | Combined: 67 — Warning

Wales — CPD Combined: 62 🟡 Warning

Wales presents a particular challenge: a portfolio defined as much by what has been cancelled as by what is being built. Forty schemes were announced at a combined £37.8 billion and now stand at £54.2 billion — an overrun of £7.38 billion, or 56.8%. The cost clock runs at £1.61 per second — the lowest of the six jurisdictions, reflecting both the smaller devolved budget and the number of schemes that have been halted.

The M4 Relief Road was cancelled in 2019 after £125 million in development costs had already been spent. The Circuit of Wales motorsport and energy project was cancelled. The Swansea Tidal Lagoon — a scheme that attracted international attention — never proceeded past planning. Velindre Cancer Centre has been in procurement for years with no confirmed construction start. The 20mph speed limit rollout has proceeded but at a cost and political controversy not reflected in the original policy framing.

The A465 Heads of the Valleys dualling is now in its twenty-third year of construction. Wales is not short of projects that have been announced. It is short of projects that have been completed at the cost and time originally presented to the public.

The 40 schemes tracked are: M4 Relief Road (cancelled) · A465 Heads of the Valleys · South Wales Metro Phase 1 · South Wales Metro Phase 2 · Circuit of Wales (cancelled) · Swansea Tidal Lagoon (cancelled) · Velindre Cancer Centre · A55/A483 North Wales Expressway · Holyhead Port & Breakwater · Wrexham & Flintshire Investment Zone · Third Menai Crossing · Cardiff Airport Modernisation · HMP Berwyn · A40 St Clears–Haverfordwest · Blaenau Ffestiniog Flood · Cardiff Central Square · A483 Newtown Bypass · Rhondda Tunnel Study · Swansea Bay City Deal · North Wales Growth Deal · Welsh Govt HQ Cathays Park 2 · ICC Wales Newport · Ebbw Vale Railway · Llanwern Remediation · Wales & Borders Rail Franchise · RAAC Schools Wales · A4119 Llantrisant Road · Cardiff Bay Tidal Barrage · Glangwili Hospital Carmarthen · 20mph Speed Limit Rollout · A470 Mid Wales · Wylfa Newydd Nuclear · Wrexham FC Stadium · A487 Caernarfon Bypass · Anglesey Freeport · SE Wales Transport Commission · Cross Rail for Wales · Flint Castle · Mostyn Docks · (scheme 40).

CPD-C: 45 | CPD-D: 78 | Combined: 62 — Warning

Scotland — CPD Combined: 59 🟠 Guarded

Scotland holds the best position in the British Isles ranking — which, given the scale of its own delivery problems, is a measure of how difficult the picture is everywhere else. Forty schemes were announced at a combined £38.26 billion and currently stand at £46.82 billion — an overrun of £8.56 billion, or 22.4%. The cost clock runs at £4.85 per second.

The A9 Dualling between Perth and Inverness was promised to be complete by 2025. The revised completion date is now 2035. The Ferguson Marine ferry programme — two vessels contracted for completion in 2018 — was not completed until 2024 and 2025 at a cost reported to be three times the original contract price. The NHS Grampian Baird Hospital and Anchor Centre has been delayed at planning and procurement stage. HIAL’s Air Traffic Management System project was abandoned after significant expenditure.

But Scotland is building. Levenmouth Rail reconnected a community to the network in 2024. The Edinburgh Tram Extension to Newhaven opened in 2023. Scottish Water’s SR21 programme is progressing. The R100 full-fibre broadband rollout is underway. Scotland’s CPD-D score of 65 is still a Warning — but it is better than England, better than ROI, better than London.

The 40 schemes tracked are: A9 Dualling Perth–Inverness · HMP Glasgow · NHS Grampian Baird Hospital · Ferguson Marine Ferries · A9 Tomatin–Moy · A96 Dualling · East Kilbride Rail · NHS Forth Valley NTC · NHS GGC North East Hub · R100 Broadband · A83 Rest and Be Thankful · Levenmouth Rail · EGIP Electrification · Scottish Parliament (historical) · Borders Railway Extension · NHS Lanarkshire Monklands · NHS Lothian Eye Pavilion · NHS Highland Belford · Inverness City-Region Deal · Edinburgh Tram Extension · Glasgow Subway Modernisation · CMAL Islay Vessels · CMAL Small Vessel Programme · Dunard Centre Edinburgh · Inverness Castle Experience · Granton Waterfront Edinburgh · Dundee Central Waterfront · Scottish Water SR21 · SSEN EGL2 · SSEN Spittal–Peterhead HVDC · ScotWind Grid Connections · Hunterston B Decommissioning · HIAL ATMS (Abandoned) · RAAC Schools Scotland · Highland Main Line · Inverness Airport Expansion · Aberdeen South Harbour · NHS Scotland NTC Programme · NHS Scotland RAAC Hospitals · (scheme 40).

CPD-C: 52 | CPD-D: 65 | Combined: 59 — Guarded

The British Isles in Numbers — 240 Schemes, One Verdict

Across all six jurisdictions and 240 schemes, the aggregate picture is this:

Jurisdiction	Announced	Current Estimate	Overrun	CPD Combined	Status
England	£28.10bn	£66.86bn	£38.76bn (137.9%)	85	🔴 Critical
ROI	€20.36bn	€45.56bn	€25.20bn (123.7%)	86	🔴 Critical
London	£29.58bn	£51.30bn	£21.72bn (73.4%)	70	🟡 Warning
NI	£6.56bn	£10.42bn	£3.86bn (58.8%)	67	🟡 Warning
Wales	£37.8bn	£54.2bn	£7.38bn (56.8%)	62	🟡 Warning
Scotland	£38.26bn	£46.82bn	£8.56bn (22.4%)	59	🟠 Guarded

Higher CPD score = worse performance. Scotland (59) is the best performer. ROI (86) is the worst.

The combined live cost clock across the British Isles portfolio — the rate at which construction inflation is eroding the unspent value of delayed schemes — runs at over £78 per second. That figure compounds, every day, whether or not a planning inquiry is sitting, a funding agreement is being negotiated, or a ministerial decision is pending.

No jurisdiction has achieved a Stable rating. That is not an editorial comment. It is an output of the data, applied consistently across all six jurisdictions.

What the CPD Dashboard Is — and Is Not

I want to be clear about this, because it matters. The CPD British Isles Dashboard is not a political argument. It does not attribute blame to any party, any minister, any civil servant, or any contractor. Every figure used in the tracker comes from an official published source: DfI, NIAO, TII, the Comptroller and Auditor General, the NTA, NBI, Transport Scotland, Welsh Government, National Highways, the National Audit Office, and others. What I have done is organise the public record — 240 schemes worth of it — and make it visible in a single place.

That is a professional obligation, not a political one. If you commission public infrastructure, the public is entitled to know what it was announced at, what it now costs, and what has been built for that money.

The cost clocks run because construction inflation is real and continuous. The methodology behind the CPD Performance Index — every weighting, every input, every calculation — is published in full on the dashboard. The split index exists because CPD-C and CPD-D measure different types of failure: a jurisdiction can be building things while breaking budgets, or holding budgets while building nothing. A single composite score obscures that distinction. The split makes it honest.

The Strangford Lough Crossing — Still Watching

One scheme in the NI portfolio deserves a note of its own. The Strangford Lough Crossing Feasibility is listed as a tracked scheme — but it is currently at feasibility stage only, with no committed capital cost and no confirmed procurement timeline. The case for a fixed link across Strangford Lough — replacing a ferry crossing that has been in operation for over half a century — is a strong one on connectivity, economic, and environmental grounds. The CPD tracker will follow its progress, or lack of it, alongside every other scheme in the portfolio.

What Comes Next

The CPD British Isles Dashboard is live. All six trackers are updated. All 240 schemes are documented. The hub is accessible at the link below.

The next phase is longitudinal tracking — returning to these schemes at regular intervals to record whether cost estimates have moved, whether construction has started or stalled, and whether the CPD scores are improving or deteriorating over time. The ambition is to make this the most complete public record of infrastructure delivery performance on these islands.

For now, the clocks run. The data is there. And as of today, 240 schemes are being watched.

CPD — Continued Prolonged Delays · Moilleadh Leanúnach Fada
All figures sourced from official published data: DfI · NIAO · TII · C&AG · NTA · NBI · Transport Scotland · Welsh Government · National Highways · National Audit Office · RTÉ · BBC · Irish Times · Belfast Telegraph · The Guardian · The Scotsman