Summary of the Northern Ireland Constitutional Preference Index (NICPI)

The NICPI is a professional, evidence-based composite indicator designed to assist the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland in objectively assessing whether a majority in Northern Ireland would likely support Irish unification in a border poll, as required under the Good Friday Agreement.

It aggregates data from multiple reputable sources (e.g., ARINS/Irish Times polls, Northern Ireland Life and Times (NILT) surveys, LucidTalk, election results) into a weighted score out of 100, updated quarterly based on the past 12-24 months’ trends.

A score exceeding 50 indicates unification appears likely, prompting poll consideration; below 50 supports maintaining the status quo. Administered independently (e.g., by Queen’s University Belfast’s ARK or the Electoral Commission), it minimizes bias through cross-verification and statistical safeguards like confidence intervals.

Key Components

Direct Referendum Polling (50% weight): Averages unification support (excluding undecideds) from polls simulating a border poll question. irishtimes.com +1

Long-Term Constitutional Preferences (20% weight): Draws from surveys on preferred future status (e.g., NILT). irishnews.com

Electoral and Identity Indicators (20% weight): Uses nationalist vote share as a proxy, adjusted for “neither” identifiers’ leanings. tandfonline.com +1

Demographic and Qualitative Trends (10% weight): Factors in youth, religious, and focus group shifts. irishnews.com

Current Value (as of November 2025)

Based on the latest available data (e.g., ARINS 2025 poll: ~34% raw support, ~42% excluding undecideds; NILT 2024: 36% favor unification; 2024 Westminster election: ~39% nationalist vote share; youth support ~48%), the NICPI scores 42.3—below 50, indicating unification is not currently likely. irishtimes.com +2 Trends show gradual increases post-Brexit, but no majority threshold crossed. Based on current trends, over 50 by 2030. Take note Mr Benn, Pro-Concul and SoS.