NORTHERN IRELAND PUBLIC FINANCES

Funding Position, Pressures, and Cross-Department Progress Dashboard

(October 2025)

1. Background – £3.3 Billion Settlement and 24 Percent Uplift

In early 2024 the UK Government and the restored Northern Ireland Executive agreed a £3.3 billion funding package to stabilise services, fund overdue pay settlements, and enable reform.
The Barnett Formula “needs-based factor” was raised to 24 percent, giving Northern Ireland about £124 per person for every £100 spent in England.
Most of the package is short-term and will not permanently raise baseline funding once it expires.

2. Why Pressure Persists

1. Short-term funds fill gaps but do not reform structures.
2. Relative need remains high—deprivation, rural delivery, ageing infrastructure.
3. Maintenance and investment backlogs increase liabilities.
4. Limited power to raise local revenue; 95 percent of spend still block-grant-funded.
5. Intermittent governance disrupts long-term planning.

3. Main Sources of Waste or Leakage

4. Priority Reforms

Note: UK TAG (Transport Analysis Guidance) should be applied mandatorily to all departmental capital appraisals, alongside HM Treasury Green Book standards, to ensure consistent social, environmental and economic evaluation.

5. Cross-Department Progress Dashboard

(Status Indicators: ✅ On Track | ⚠️ Partial Progress | ❌ Off Track | ⬜ No Data)

6. Overall Interpretation

• Procurement reform, shared services, and transparency show measurable progress.
• Health and Education remain the most financially stressed sectors.
• Maintenance and reform backlogs remain the largest liabilities.
• The 24 percent uplift stabilised finances but has not yet improved productivity.
• Making UK TAG and Green Book appraisal mandatory, linking performance to this dashboard, and enforcing multi-year budgeting would transform financial governance from reactive management to transparent, evidence-based delivery.

7. Summary

Northern Ireland now benefits from a fairer funding model but continues to operate within a fragile structure where inefficiency and deferred reform absorb much of the uplift.
Embedding mandatory appraisal standards, maintaining a live traffic-light dashboard, and publishing regular cross-department RAG updates will demonstrate in measurable terms where value is being achieved and where it is being lost.

Overall performance rating (October 2025): 68 / 100
This score reflects moderate stability and transparency progress, offset by weak reform delivery and large maintenance backlogs.

NORTHERN IRELAND PUBLIC FINANCES – YEAR-ON-YEAR DASHBOARD

Comparison: October 2024 → October 2025

(Values represent department-level averages or headline indicators; all figures indicative)

Summary Metrics

Headline Comparison

Overall Performance Index:

• October 2024 = 62 / 100
• October 2025 = 68 / 100
• Change: +6 points (Improved)

Interpretation:
Fiscal control, procurement reform, and transparency show tangible year-on-year improvement.
Health and Education remain under pressure, with waiting lists and school deficits widening.
Infrastructure governance and decision turnaround have strengthened notably.

Making UK TAG / Green Book appraisal mandatory, enforcing multi-year budgeting, and maintaining this year-on-year dashboard will allow continued measurement of real efficiency gains across departments.