Below is a comprehensive comparison of Strangford Lough Crossing (SLC) and the A5 ruling handed down on 23rd June 2025, assessing SLC’s merits under NI climate law:

Below, link to general SLC website for further general information

www.strangfordloughcrossing.org

See also below a link to updated page directly answering detractors who assert that any bridge would not reduce car miles.

🌍 Environmental Context: Strangford Lough vs. A5 Corridor

Strangford Lough

• Hosts internationally important ecosystems: Ramsar, SAC, MPA designations supporting seals, eelgrass beds, wintering birds, rare invertebrates (daera-ni.gov.uk).
• Under climate threat: rising sea levels, erosion, habitat loss (nationaltrust.org.uk).

A5 Route

• Primarily rural corridor, less ecologically sensitive than Strangford Lough—but still significant for farming landscapes and local communities.

⚖️ Legal Precedent: A5 Quashing

• High Court decision (23 June 2025) quashed A5 upgrade on grounds of breaching Section 52 of the Climate Change Act (NI) 2022 due to lack of sufficient GHG impact data (sac.jncc.gov.uk, irishnews.com).
• Project was deemed unlawful, despite safety considerations, because no proof it wouldn’t undermine statutory net-zero targets (irishnews.com).

✅ SLC’s Alignment with Climate Law (Stronger Than A5?)

Assessment: SLC has a chance to outperform the A5—IF it embeds full GHG lifecycle analysis, budget alignment, active travel, low-carbon materials, and rigorous habitat protections from the outset.

🚦 Merits & Risks Compared to A5

✅ Advantages of SLC

1. Holistic modal design potential
   • Can be tailored for walking, cycling, EVs, public transport—aligns with Act’s 10% spend on active travel.
2. Environmental sensitivity
   • Greater need for care—but also an opportunity to showcase climate-positive design that respects Ramsar/SAC sites.
3. Carbon savings opportunity
   • Replacing diesel ferry reduces operational GHG emissions if offset against initial construction footprint.
4. Learning from A5
   • SLC’s proponents can integrate judicial risk mitigation from day one, avoiding A5’s legal missteps.

⚠️ Key Risks

• Bath of embodied emissions: Cement/steel needs low-carbon alternatives to avoid budget breaches.
• Habitat disruption: Tidal flows and protected habitats require advanced EIA/HRA to prevent legal challenges.
• Judicial scrutiny: Any gap in GHG accounting or budget compliance invites same fate as A5.
• Public concern: Ferry users, environmental groups, and local communities may challenge based on ecology or culture.

🔍 Estimated Probability of Success

• With climate-biodiversity aligned design → 70–85% probability of judicial and statutory approval.
• Partial compliance (e.g. GHG but no active travel or habitat integration) → 40–60% risk of legal referral.
• Weak climate framing → <30% chance—likely dismissal similar to A5.

📝 Summary

• Today’s A5 ruling sets a higher legal bar: every large infrastructure project must prove compatibility with NI’s carbon budgets, lifecycle emissions, and biodiversity duties.
• Strangford Lough Crossing, properly re-engineered, can meet and exceed this bar—offering net climate benefits, active travel integration, and ecological protection.
• But without thorough lifecycle GHG audits, budget modeling, and habitat-sensitive design, SLC risks becoming another judicial casualty.

Strangford Lough Crossing: Climate Compliance and Legal Viability Assessment

Website: www.strangfordloughcrossing.org

Acronyms used:

• SLC – Strangford Lough Crossing
• GHG – Greenhouse Gas
• CO2e – Carbon Dioxide Equivalent
• EV – Electric Vehicle
• EIA – Environmental Impact Assessment
• HRA – Habitats Regulations Assessment
• DAERA – Department of Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs
• DfI – Department for Infrastructure
• CCC – UK Climate Change Committee
• SAC – Special Area of Conservation
• MNR – Marine Nature Reserve
• HVO – Hydrotreated Vegetable Oil

1. Executive Summary

This report provides a detailed evaluation of the proposed Strangford Lough Crossing (SLC), assessing its compliance with the Climate Change Act (Northern Ireland) 2022 in light of the High Court’s ruling on the A5 Western Transport Corridor (23 June 2025). It concludes that the SLC project has a viable path forward, provided it undergoes a fundamental climate compliance overhaul, centred on robust lifecycle greenhouse gas (GHG) accounting, emissions mitigation strategies, and proactive legal transparency.

Compared to the A5 project—which was quashed by the High Court for failing to consider lifecycle GHG emissions—SLC benefits from a stronger sustainability rationale and the opportunity to avoid repeating A5’s legal errors by embedding best practice from the outset.

2. Background

The SLC aims to replace the current ferry connection across Strangford Lough with a fixed link, improving transport connectivity, economic access, and journey reliability for communities on the Ards Peninsula. However, the crossing spans a region of exceptional ecological value, designated as a Marine Nature Reserve (MNR), Special Area of Conservation (SAC), and Ramsar site under international law.

Given these sensitivities and Northern Ireland’s statutory obligations to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, the project must not only demonstrate positive socio-economic returns but also legal compliance with carbon reduction pathways.

3. Legal and Climate Framework

3.1 Relevant Legislation

• Climate Change Act (Northern Ireland) 2022 – Establishes net-zero by 2050, interim targets, and carbon budgets.
• Climate Change Reporting Bodies Regulations 2024 – Requires public bodies to report progress on climate duties.
• Habitats Regulations (NI) – Ensures protection of internationally significant biodiversity features.

3.2 The A5 High Court Ruling (2025)

The A5 Western Transport Corridor was struck down by the High Court on 23 June 2025 for failing to comply with Section 52 of the Climate Change Act (NI) 2022. The Department for Infrastructure (DfI) had not sufficiently assessed the project’s lifecycle GHG emissions or shown compatibility with the Executive’s statutory carbon budgets.

This precedent raises the legal bar for all major infrastructure projects in Northern Ireland.

4. Emissions and Carbon Budget Impact

4.1 Ferry Emissions Baseline

The current ferry service is powered by diesel, producing approximately 1,100 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) annually.

4.2 SLC Emissions Forecast

Without intervention, the SLC project risks breaching short-term carbon budgets for 2023–2037.

5. Recommendations for Legal and Climate Alignment

5.1 Lifecycle GHG Audit

A full cradle-to-grave GHG audit is required before submission for planning approval. This must quantify construction, operational, and decommissioning emissions.

5.2 Carbon Budget Integration

The SLC must explicitly demonstrate alignment with DAERA-endorsed carbon budgets for:

• 2023–2027
• 2028–2032
• 2033–2037

5.3 Emissions Mitigation Measures

• Use low-carbon materials (e.g., CEM III/A cement, recycled steel).
• Designate EV-only lanes, pedestrian and cycling infrastructure.
• Include renewable infrastructure: solar-powered lighting, EV chargers.

5.4 Legal and Environmental Documentation

• Update the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and Habitats Regulations Assessment (HRA) to include GHG analysis.
• Draft a Climate Duty Compliance Statement referencing all applicable legislation.

5.5 Transparent Reporting and Engagement

• Establish a public-facing carbon tracker.
• Ensure all DAERA and DfI duties under the 2024 Reporting Regulations are fulfilled.

6. Risk and Comparison with A5

Conclusion: SLC has a stronger climate opportunity case than A5 but faces higher environmental scrutiny. Legal viability is conditional upon robust, early climate integration.

7. Probability of Success

8. Conclusion

The Strangford Lough Crossing proposal can only move forward in the current legal environment if it demonstrates best-in-class climate strategy. Unlike the A5, SLC can offer net-positive environmental returns—particularly by removing diesel ferry emissions, facilitating modal shift, and integrating low-carbon design.

However, these benefits must be quantified and validated through proper documentation, statutory carbon modeling, and stakeholder engagement. With the right framing and technical rigor, SLC could become a model for climate-compliant infrastructure in Northern Ireland.

Acronyms Used:

• SLC – Strangford Lough Crossing
• GHG – Greenhouse Gas
• CO2e – Carbon Dioxide Equivalent
• EV – Electric Vehicle
• EIA – Environmental Impact Assessment
• HRA – Habitats Regulations Assessment
• DAERA – Department of Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs
• DfI – Department for Infrastructure
• CCC – UK Climate Change Committee
• SAC – Special Area of Conservation
• MNR – Marine Nature Reserve
• HVO – Hydrotreated Vegetable Oil

www.strangfordloughcrossing.org