- BY Kevin Barry BSc(Hons) MRICS
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The A5 Can Now Be Built. It Is Time to Plan Infrastructure the Proper Way.
7 October 2026
This week belongs to the families of Tyrone.
More than 50 people have died on the A5 since 2006 (Pinsent Masons, Out-Law, 11 August 2025). Behind that figure are parents, children and neighbours, and a community that refused to stop campaigning. On Tuesday the Court of Appeal gave them the answer they had waited for.
Niall McKenna, Chair of A5 Enough Is Enough, said his campaign “has never been about winning court cases” (We Are Tyrone, 6 October 2026). It was about lives. We congratulate the families, the Minister and her officials without reservation.
What the court decided
The Court of Appeal (Keegan LCJ, Treacy LJ and Humphreys J) examined four issues:
- environmental impact assessment;
- human rights;
- the climate duty in section 52 of the Climate Change Act (Northern Ireland) 2022;
- the handling of the climate evidence.
It allowed the Department’s appeal on all grounds (Judicial Communications Office, Summary of Judgment, In re Hassard and others (A5), 6 October 2026).
On climate, the court was clear. Section 52 does not prohibit a new road. It requires a department to reach a rational conclusion “on the basis of adequate inquiry”. The court also warned that forcing every individual project to fit within climate action plans would stall major development across Northern Ireland.
The A5 passed because the work had been done. Its traffic modelling followed technical guidelines and was endorsed by the Planning Appeals Commission as adequate.
That is good news for every community waiting on infrastructure. It also sets the entry ticket: no inquiry, no lawful decision.
Nineteen years, £200 million, and not one square metre of new road
The A5 story is also a warning about cost.
The spend so far. On the morning of judgment, The Irish News reported close to £200 million spent with no road built, against an expected total of over £2 billion (Conor Coyle, The Irish News, 6 October 2026). For all that money, not a single square metre of new A5 dual carriageway has been laid.
The price of time. The Executive agreed to proceed on 17 July 2007. The published estimates since then (NI Roads Site, Wesley Johnston, “A5 Dualling Londonderry to Aughnacloy”) are:
| Date | Estimated cost |
|---|---|
| 2007 | £560 million |
| November 2008 | £650 to £850 million |
| August 2009 | £844 million |
| October 2016 | £1,049 million |
| December 2019 | £1,134 million |
| November 2022 | £1,609 million |
| February 2024 | £1,700 million |
That is a threefold rise from £560 million to £1.7 billion, about 204% in cash terms (campaign arithmetic). The Irish News now puts the expected total at over £2 billion.
Part of that rise is construction inflation, since the 2007 figure is in 2007 prices. The rest is the cost of time. The Department itself has acknowledged that delays “have and will continue to significantly increase the costs” of delivering the A5 (The Irish News, “Cost of A5 road soars to over £150 million without any tarmac being laid”).
No one at Strangford criticises the families who fought for that road. But every Minister and official should draw the same conclusion. Infrastructure decided politically and appraised afterwards is defended in court for years, while costs climb and lives are lost.
The proper way is the other way round: inquire first, decide second.
Strangford: a chance to do it right from the start
At Strangford, the inquiry has not started. Asked what it holds on a fixed crossing, the Department replied “no recorded information held” (DfI FOI response DFI/2026-0415, 5 August 2026). The ferry was transferred within the Department in April 2023 with no business case and no appraisal framework (DfI FOI response DFI/2026-0357, 6 July 2026).
The Minister has nonetheless moved. In her letter to Ards and North Down Borough Council she wrote: “I am now giving consideration to this issue” (COR-0360-2026, 6 July 2026). The Council’s Place and Prosperity Committee notes that letter tomorrow evening. Both Ards and North Down and Newry, Mourne and Down councils have passed resolutions supporting the campaign.
The goodwill is there. What is missing is the first piece of evidence.
The low-cost case
Run it like a no-frills airline: what does it cost, what does it save, and who has checked?
| Item | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| A5 spend without new road | Close to £200 million | The Irish News, 6 October 2026 |
| Strangford ferry net subsidy | £2,090,000 a year | DfI FOI response DFI-2024-0366 |
| Independent feasibility study | £250,000 to £500,000, one-off | Specialist industry advice, campaign file |
| Study as weeks of ferry subsidy | About 6 to 12.5 weeks | Campaign arithmetic |
| Study as share of A5 pre-construction spend | 0.125% to 0.25% | Campaign arithmetic |
| A5 pre-construction spend as years of ferry subsidy | About 96 years | Campaign arithmetic |
A few weeks of ferry subsidy buys an answer. If the answer is no, the study has still done its job: the question is settled on evidence and public money is protected. If the answer is yes, Strangford starts with the evidence the A5 had to fight in court to defend.
A way forward for the Minister
We respectfully suggest six practical steps. None commits the Executive to build anything.
1. Commission an independent feasibility study. Scope it to the Department of Finance Better Business Cases NI Five Case Model, with an option to extend to an Outline Business Case. The £250,000 to £500,000 range depends on that choice.
2. Let the study answer the Department’s own test. Officials have said a study would be justified by evidence of congestion or capacity problems, safety concerns, or committed development (DfI letter TOF-0624-2026, Ian McClung, 28 August 2026). Make those three questions its opening terms of reference. But not constrained by these, as perceived to be skewed to thwart any chance of success.
3. Build in the section 52 assessment from day one. Model latent and induced demand to recognised technical guidelines. Set construction carbon against shorter journeys and the retirement of a diesel ferry. Done at the start, that is cheap insurance against challenge later.
4. Compare like with like. Assess the crossing against the whole-life cost of keeping the ferry, including vessel replacement. The Department holds no fleet replacement business case (DFI/2026-0415).
5. Open the co-funding door. The Department of the Taoiseach has indicated openness to Shared Island co-funding, contingent on Northern Ireland Executive leadership (DOT-TM25-11858-2025, Christina Downey, 16 September 2025). A Ministerial decision to commission the study is that leadership.
6. Publish the terms of reference and a timetable. Record the crossing in the Eastern Transport Plan 2035 as a scheme requiring further assessment. Write back to both councils so their resolutions receive a substantive answer, not simply a note.
The ask: a crossing that pays its way, for a good life
The campaign has never asked the taxpayer to write a blank cheque. The question we want tested is a simple one: could a tolled crossing let the people who use it repay the cost of building it? Any surplus would then go to the economic opportunities that have bypassed the Ards Peninsula and Lecale for generations: jobs, enterprise, tourism, and young people able to build their lives here rather than leave.
We do not know the answer yet. Nobody does, because nobody has been allowed to check. That is precisely what a feasibility study is for.
In his 1930 essay Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, John Maynard Keynes wrote that humanity’s real, permanent problem would be how “to live wisely and agreeably and well”. Infrastructure is not an end in itself. A road, a ferry or a bridge is only ever a means to that end: shorter journeys, safer roads, better jobs and more time with family.
The A5 shows what happens when appraisal comes after the decision: nineteen years, a threefold cost increase and £200 million spent before the first square metre of new road. Strangford offers the Minister the chance to do it the proper way from the start, for a few weeks’ worth of ferry subsidy.
One independent feasibility study. A hand up, not a handout.
Kevin Barry BSc(Hons) MRICS
Campaign Lead, Strangford Lough Crossing Campaign
www.strangfordloughcrossing.org
Sources
- Judicial Communications Office, “Court of Appeal allows appeal by DfI in A5 WTC proceedings”, Summary of Judgment, In re Hassard and others (A5) (CA), 6 October 2026. Decisions appealed: [2025] NIKB 42 and [2026] NIKB 10. judiciaryni.uk
- Pinsent Masons, “Northern Ireland court A5 ruling clarifies scope of climate duties in infrastructure decisions”, Out-Law, 7 October 2026. pinsentmasons.com
- Pinsent Masons, “A5 dispute ‘a litmus test’ for infrastructure and climate ambitions”, Out-Law, 11 August 2025. pinsentmasons.com
- We Are Tyrone, “Court of Appeal clears way for A5 road work to begin”, 6 October 2026.
- Conor Coyle, “Judges expected to deliver crucial ruling on future of long delayed A5”, The Irish News, 6 October 2026.
- The Irish News, “Cost of A5 road soars to over £150 million without any tarmac being laid” 2026. irishnews.com
- Wesley Johnston, NI Roads Site, “A5 Dualling Londonderry to Aughnacloy”. wesleyjohnston.com
- DfI FOI response DFI/2026-0415, 5 August 2026.
- DfI FOI response DFI/2026-0357, 6 July 2026.
- DfI FOI response DFI-2024-0366, Strangford Ferry costs and income.
- Liz Kimmins MLA, letter to the Chief Executive, Ards and North Down Borough Council, COR-0360-2026, 6 July 2026 (Place and Prosperity Committee agenda, 8 October 2026, Item 13, Appendix 1).
- DfI letter TOF-0624-2026, Ian McClung, Head of Consultancy Services, TRAM, 28 August 2026.
- Department of the Taoiseach, DOT-TM25-11858-2025, Christina Downey, 16 September 2025.
- John Maynard Keynes, “Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren” (1930), published in Essays in Persuasion (1931).