- BY Kevin Barry BSc(Hons) MRICS
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Where www.strangfordloughcrossing.org Stands in the Formal NI Infrastructure Appraisal Process
If Northern Ireland part of the UK, there is a need for strategic infrastructure since the GFA. Ordinary people have seen no such investment to date.
The DoF Better Business Cases NI Five Case Model follows a defined sequential gateway process. Each stage requires ministerial or departmental approval before progression to the next.
The Gateway Process — Where SLC Sits
| Stage | What It Is | Who Commissions | SLC Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Strategic Assessment | Problem defined; long-list of options; case for change established | DfI internally | Substantially complete in campaign materials — but not formally commissioned by DfI |
| 2. Initial Agreement (IA) | Departmental sign-off that a problem exists and warrants further study | DfI Minister | Not issued. DfI has formally refused (TOF-0467-2025, Ian McClung, 24 October 2025; COR-0002-2026, 22 January 2026) |
| 3. Outline Business Case (OBC) | Five Case Model appraisal; preferred option identified; Green Book BCR calculated | DfI / appointed consultants (e.g. MGA) | Not commenced. Blocked at Stage 2 |
| 4. Full Business Case (FBC) | Detailed design; procurement; final investment decision | DfI / NI Executive | Not commenced |
| 5. Statutory Consents | Planning; Bridge Order; Environmental Impact Assessment; SAC/ASSI licensing | DfI / DAERA / Planning Appeals Commission | Not commenced |
| 6. Procurement and Construction | Contractor appointment; construction; commissioning | DfI / contractor | Not commenced |
What the Campaign Has Produced Outside the Formal Process
| Document | Equivalent Formal Stage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Community Survey, November 2024 (458 responses; 94% not fit for purpose) | Stakeholder consultation element of Strategic Assessment | Completed — not formally accepted by DfI |
| TAG Analysis — Electrified Ferry vs £300m Bridge, Kevin Barry BSc(Hons) MRICS, January 2026 | Economic Case element of OBC | Completed — not formally commissioned |
| Draft Business Case, November 2024 | Outline Business Case (preliminary) | Completed — not formally commissioned |
| Cleddau Bridge traffic analysis; HITRANS Corran comparator | Demand modelling element of Economic Case | Completed — not formally accepted |
| FOI evidence base (DFI-2024-0366; DFI-2025-0054; DFI-2024-0412) | Evidence base for Strategic and Economic Cases | Completed — on the public record |
| Bi-council mandate (Ards and North Down; Newry, Mourne and Down, April 2026) | Stakeholder support element of Strategic Case | Completed — on the public record |
| Ministerial briefings; Chris Hazzard MP briefing, 13 March 2026 | Political case for Initial Agreement | Completed — not formally accepted |
The Precise Blockage
The campaign has independently assembled the analytical content equivalent to a preliminary Strategic Assessment and significant elements of an Outline Business Case, within the Economic Case. This is an unusual and credible position for a community-led campaign.
However, none of it sits within the formal DoF gateway process because DfI has declined to issue an Initial Agreement — the departmental decision that a problem exists and warrants structured appraisal. Without that decision, no formal OBC can be commissioned, no funding can be sought through the Shared Island Fund on a project basis, and no statutory consents process can begin.
DfI’s stated basis for refusing the Initial Agreement is insufficient economic justification. The campaign’s documented position — supported by a BCR of 2.1:1 at worst case and 4.3:1 at base case — is that this refusal is circular: economic justification is precisely what a commissioned OBC would establish or refute.
What Ministerial Direction Would Unlock
A single ministerial direction from Minister Kimmins to commission an independent feasibility study — at £150,000, less than four weeks’ net ferry subsidy — would move the project from its current position outside the formal process into Stage 2 (Initial Agreement) and enable the appointment of independent consultants to conduct a Green Book-compliant OBC.
That OBC, on the basis of the documented evidence, would be expected to return a BCR of between 2.1:1 and 8.4:1, classify the project as High to Very High Value for Money, and recommend progression to Full Business Case — at which point Shared Island Fund co-funding and UKIMA section 50 contributions become formally accessible.
The campaign is at the gate. The gate is bolted from the inside. One ministerial decision opens it.
Sources: DoF Better Business Cases NI Five Case Model; TOF-0467-2025; COR-0002-2026; www.strangfordloughcrossing.org (chronological record, 2024-2026); TAG Analysis, Kevin Barry BSc(Hons) MRICS, January 2026.