Ranking Northern Ireland’s Road Schemes by Safety Priority

A Neutral, Evidence-Led Assessment of Major Current and Proposed Schemes

Improving road safety remains one of the most cost-effective interventions available to policymakers in Northern Ireland. While discussions about road investment often focus on economic development, regional balance or political visibility, the single most important criterion for any infrastructure programme should be its potential to reduce death and serious injury.

This analysis ranks the principal road schemes featured on the Wesley Johnston NI Roads website — along with historically significant or concept schemes — solely on their expected safety impact. Other factors such as cost, feasibility and regional benefit are included for context only; they do not influence the ranking. Recently, Donegal has been added thus reflecting this in ranking schemes.

The aim is to provide a clear, objective, and publicly understandable picture of which projects would deliver the greatest safety improvement per vehicle-kilometre removed, risk reduced, or dangerous geometry eliminated.

Methodology

This ranking considers:

• historic fatal and serious collision data
• known high-risk geometries (e.g., right-turns across 70mph traffic, narrow S2 with high HGV proportions)
• overtaking risk and platooning
• pedestrian/HGV conflict in built-up areas
• emergency-access vulnerability
• weather dependency and maritime risk (for Strangford Lough)
• the degree to which a scheme replaces, removes or bypasses fundamentally unsafe layouts

Each scheme is treated on its safety merits independent of its cost, current political commitment, or likelihood of delivery.

For more detailed information on the rankings, click on the image below;

Tier 1 — Critical Life-Saving Schemes

These projects address corridors with long, well-documented records of fatal and serious collisions.
They provide the largest possible reduction in risk for road users.

1. A5 Western Transport Corridor

The A5 is Northern Ireland’s most problematic strategic road in safety terms. Fatalities over the last two decades substantially exceed those on comparable A-class routes. Its narrow, inconsistent standard; frequent side roads; poor verges; and risky overtaking environment create a disproportional level of high-severity collisions.
Safety priority: Exceptional.

2. A1 Junctions Phase 2

The A1 remains the most dangerous dual carriageway in the region due to a historic design that permits right turns across 70mph traffic. Numerous serious crashes have occurred at gap junctions. Phase 2 eliminates these central reservation openings and creates grade-separated access, delivering a transformational reduction in collision severity.
Safety priority: Exceptional.

Tier 2 — Major Urban and Regional Safety Improvements

These projects remedy chronic conflict between vehicles, pedestrians and turning movements in built-up areas, or remove substandard sections that consistently generate collisions.

3. A24 Ballynahinch Bypass

Ballynahinch experiences continuous congestion, with a resulting pattern of rear-end collisions, risky turning movements and pedestrian conflict. The bypass would remove through-traffic from the town core, reducing exposure and improving safety for all users.

4. A4 Enniskillen Southern Bypass

Enniskillen faces similar issues to Ballynahinch, with heavy through-flows navigating constrained streets. Removing regional traffic would significantly reduce collision exposure within the town environment.

Tier 3 — Medium / Hidden Safety Risks (Strategic Resilience and Exposure Reduction)

These projects do not address corridors with catastrophic collision histories but provide substantial safety benefits by reducing exposure, eliminating maritime risk, or replacing layouts that are structurally inappropriate for modern traffic volumes.

5. Strangford Lough Fixed Link (Bridge Concept)

Although the current ferry service has a relatively modest recorded accident history, a fixed link would remove an entire class of maritime risk — including boarding hazards, deck movements, night operations and tidal conditions. It would also eliminate the 40–50 mile diversion required during outages, substantially lowering rural-road collision exposure across the lough basin.

The upgrade would notably improve emergency access reliability and patient transfer times, areas where the existing arrangement presents clear structural vulnerability.

Safety priority: Medium–High (with very high resilience value).

6. Newry Southern Relief Road

This proposed link would remove heavy freight traffic from Newry city centre, where current interactions between lorries, turning traffic and pedestrians create steady low-to-medium severity collision risk.

7. Ballybofey–Stranorlar Bypass (Twin Towns, Donegal)

Although outside Northern Ireland, this corridor is relevant to the cross-border network. The existing urban route carries a high proportion of HGVs and local traffic, creating an elevated level of minor and moderate collisions.

Tier 4 — Corridor Improvements and Overtaking Risk Reduction

These schemes address moderate levels of collision risk by removing single-carriageway overtaking hazards and reducing platooning, especially on rural commuter and inter-urban corridors.

8. A26 Ballymoney–Coleraine Dualling

This upgrade would remove dangerous overtaking patterns and reduce the likelihood of high-speed head-on collisions. While not a severe hotspot, safety benefits are clear.

9. A26 Nutt’s Corner–Moira 2+1 Scheme

A 2+1 cross-section would provide safe overtaking opportunities on a busy commuter route currently prone to risky manoeuvres behind slower vehicles.

10. A3 Dualling Portadown–Richhill

Historically proposed to manage commuter traffic, this scheme would reduce the common S2 overtaking risks but does not address a particularly severe collision problem.

Tier 5 — Low Safety Value / Mostly Capacity-Led Projects

These projects have benefits in terms of traffic flow, journey time, or city centre regeneration, but their pure safety benefit is modest relative to other schemes.

11. York Street Interchange (Belfast)

The primary purpose of this interchange upgrade is to remove a major bottleneck at the M2–M3–Westlink junction. While it may reduce shunt-type collisions, its impact on severe injuries is limited. The scheme does not address a dangerous layout in the same sense as A5 or A1.

12. A55 Outer Ring Widening at Knock

This widening project largely targets capacity constraints. The existing layout does not present a severe collision problem, so the safety uplift is minimal.

Unranked but Relevant (Completed Schemes Historically on the ‘Future’ List)

The following are included for completeness but omitted from ranking as they are either completed or substantially delivered:

• A2 Greenisland Dualling
• A6 Dualling: Randalstown–Castledawson
• A6 Dualling: Dungiven–Drumahoe

These schemes did provide meaningful safety improvements, particularly the A6 upgrades, but no longer form part of the active future pipeline.

Final Safety Ranking Summary

1. A5 Western Transport Corridor
2. A1 Junctions Phase 2
3. A24 Ballynahinch Bypass
4. A4 Enniskillen Southern Bypass
5. Strangford Lough Fixed Link
6. Newry Southern Relief Road
7. Ballybofey–Stranorlar Bypass
8. A26 Ballymoney–Coleraine Dualling
9. A26 Nutt’s Corner–Moira 2+1
10. A3 Portadown–Richhill Dualling
11. York Street Interchange
12. A55 Knock Widening

Conclusion

When assessed purely through the lens of safety, Northern Ireland’s priorities become clearer. The A5 and A1 represent the most urgent and transformational life-saving opportunities. Town bypasses such as Ballynahinch and Enniskillen offer substantial safety gains at relatively modest cost. Strategic schemes like a Strangford Lough Fixed Link deliver structural risk reduction, improved emergency response resilience and long-term exposure benefits that exceed many conventionally funded projects.

While financial, environmental and political considerations will always influence decision-making, the evidence remains that directing investment toward the highest-risk corridors delivers the most immediate and measurable public benefit.