Analysis of Anti-Poverty Strategy Recommendations in Relation to the Strangford Lough Crossing

Executive Summary

This analysis examines the potential alignment between a fixed crossing over Strangford Lough and the recommendations of the Expert Advisory Panel on Anti-Poverty Strategy (2020). The proposed Strangford Lough Crossing (SLC) could potentially support several key anti-poverty objectives through improved connectivity, economic development, and access to services. However, any such infrastructure project would need careful consideration of its design, financing model, and community impacts to ensure it contributes meaningfully to reducing poverty and inequality in the region.

1. Background Context

Anti-Poverty Strategy Framework

In December 2020, the Expert Advisory Panel submitted their “Recommendations for an Anti-Poverty Strategy” to the Department for Communities. The report noted that “the Northern Ireland Act 1998 obliges the Executive to develop a strategy ‘to tackle poverty, social exclusion and patterns of deprivation based on objective need'” (Expert Advisory Panel, 2020, p.6).

The Panel emphasized that effective anti-poverty measures should focus on “raising living standards and reducing living costs for those below an agreed, objectively-defined poverty line” (Expert Advisory Panel, 2020, p.14). The report specifically noted that Northern Ireland has significant regional disparities, with “the majority (60%) of people in poverty [living] outside the wider Belfast metropolitan area” (Expert Advisory Panel, 2020, p.18).

Current Strangford Lough Ferry Service

The Strangford Lough Ferry Service carries approximately 650 vehicle crossings per day, or approximately 237,250 annually (SLC – Cleddau bridge v Ferry traffic, p.2). This contrasts with the Cleddau Bridge in Wales, which currently handles about 4,745,000 crossings annually – around 20 times the ferry volume.

The current ferry service costs the Department just under £2.2 million per annum, with approximately 40% recovered through fare income (Strangford Lough Ferry Service – Strategic Review Report 2013, p.2). Operating hours are limited to approximately 07:30-23:00 on weekdays, with slightly different hours on weekends, and the service can be disrupted by weather conditions.

2. Alignment with Anti-Poverty Strategy Objectives

2.1 Regional Balance and Economic Development

The “Sub-Regional Economic Plan” (October 2024) highlighted persistent economic disparities across Northern Ireland:

The majority (60%) of people in poverty live outside the wider Belfast metropolitan area (comprising the four council areas of Belfast City, Lisburn & Castlereagh, Antrim & Newtownabbey, and North Down and Ards). Belfast City Council area accounts for one in five (20%) of the NI total. Derry City and Strabane has the highest poverty rate of all council areas at 27%.

The Anti-Poverty Panel noted that “One challenge is to ensure that opportunities for work are available in areas of economic underdevelopment” (Expert Advisory Panel, 2020, p.6).

A fixed crossing connecting Portaferry to Strangford could potentially contribute to greater regional balance by:

• Facilitating economic activity between Ards & North Down and Newry, Mourne & Down council areas
• Expanding labor market catchment areas for businesses on both sides
• Supporting tourism development across the wider region

Comparative data from the Cleddau Bridge in Wales provides evidence of potential economic impact:

The Cleddau Bridge now handles 4,745,000 crossings annually (as of 2024), while the Strangford Ferry remains at 237,250. […] The Cleddau Bridge now handles 20 times more daily traffic than the Strangford Ferry, suggesting significant suppressed demand and potential for growth with a permanent crossing.

2.2 Employment and Labor Market Access

The Anti-Poverty Panel emphasized that “one of the consequences of the shift in tenures is that more low-income families with children are now living in the private rented sector with higher rents and poorer conditions than if they were accommodated in the public sector” (Expert Advisory Panel, 2020, p.48). This places greater importance on affordable transportation to employment opportunities.

A fixed crossing could potentially improve labor market dynamics by:

1. Expanding the catchment area for the hospital, potentially increasing patient numbers and improving resource utilization.
2. Facilitating the sharing of resources and staff between healthcare facilities on both sides of the lough.
3. Reducing commuting costs for workers accessing employment across the lough.

The Panel specifically recommended improved transportation infrastructure in their cross-cutting recommendations:

9.22 Improve access to public transport, particularly to allow workers in areas of low job density to easily access areas where there is high job density.

2.3 Healthcare Access

The Expert Advisory Panel identified healthcare access as a key dimension of poverty:

6.12 Develop a targeted set of interventions to recognise and support children in poverty with specific additional vulnerabilities arising from, for example, the social exclusion of Travellers, rural isolation, children with caring responsibilities, bullying, violence within the home, sexual exploitation and hate crime.

A permanent crossing could address some of these concerns, as outlined in a recent open letter to the Health Minister:

Currently, the ferry service operates from 7:30 AM to 10:45 PM on weekdays, with reduced hours on weekends. This limits access to emergency and after-hours care for residents on the Portaferry side. A permanent crossing would provide 24/7 access, potentially saving lives in emergency situations.

Allow residents of the Ards Peninsula faster and more reliable access to the hospital’s services.

2.4 Educational Access and Opportunity

The Anti-Poverty Panel emphasized the importance of educational access:

Educational disadvantage, disability or mental ill-health, difficult personal circumstances and structural factors, including poverty, becoming a young mother, being in care and being a young carer.

A fixed crossing could potentially enhance educational access by:

1. Facilitating better access to educational institutions across the lough
2. Enabling more consistent school attendance regardless of weather conditions
3. Supporting cross-lough school partnerships and shared educational resources

3. Concerns and Considerations

While a fixed crossing could contribute to anti-poverty objectives, several important considerations must be addressed:

3.1 Infrastructure Cost vs. Benefit Analysis

The Expert Advisory Panel highlighted that major investments should be evaluated against their ability to directly help those in poverty:

Our focus on households and categories of people, rather than on socio-economically deprived areas, is a deliberate one… initiatives of this type can only be regarded as anti-poverty policies if they contribute directly to raising household incomes through access to more and better-paid work, and to unclaimed benefits, and by reducing the costs of household essentials.

The projected cost of a fixed crossing appears to be significant:

• Strategic infrastructure investment connecting Portaferry and Strangford • £300-400M project delivering transformational economic benefits

This would need to be carefully balanced against other potential anti-poverty investments.

3.2 Environmental Considerations

The Anti-Poverty Panel made several recommendations regarding environmental sustainability:

9.27 The strategy needs to engage with the cross-cutting issues of: • retrofitting of housing and other property; • decarbonisation of home heating, transport, and electricity production • changes in agriculture and land use; • prioritising employment recruitment and training in areas of high unemployment; • decentralisation from the Belfast urban area, with reduced commuter carbon footprint.

Environmental assessments would need to consider:

1. The environmental impact of a crossing on Strangford Lough’s marine ecosystem
2. The carbon emissions during construction versus potential long-term reductions
3. The potential for a crossing to include active travel infrastructure (cycling/walking)

Any proposal would need to demonstrate alignment with climate goals and environmental protections of Strangford Lough, which has numerous environmental designations.

3.3 Financing Model

The financial structure of any SLC project would need careful consideration to ensure it doesn’t create new economic barriers:

• NWF cornerstone investment • Target 1:3 public-private leverage ratio • Residential TIF component • Robust toll revenue potential • Multiple additional revenue streams

If implemented as a toll bridge, accessibility for low-income households would be a critical consideration. Any toll structure would need to be designed to avoid creating new economic barriers or exacerbating transport poverty.

4. Recommendations

Based on this analysis, the following recommendations are presented for consideration:

4.1 Integrated Assessment Framework

Any feasibility study for the Strangford Lough Crossing should explicitly incorporate anti-poverty objectives and considerations, including:

1. The direct economic impact on lower-income households in both council areas
2. Accessibility measures for those without private transport
3. Potential for the crossing to enhance access to employment, healthcare, education, and services

4.2 Active Travel and Public Transport Integration

The Anti-Poverty Strategy and Active Travel Delivery Plan should be considered together in any crossing design:

The benefit of active travel to promote social equality and inclusivity. By giving accessible travel options to people, especially those who cannot drive or do not have access to a car, we ensure that everyone has the freedom to move around easily and independently.

Design will be people-centred, with the aim of creating places that are welcoming and accessible to all.

A fixed crossing should incorporate dedicated active travel infrastructure and be integrated with existing and planned public transport.

4.3 Community-Led Approach

The Anti-Poverty Panel emphasized the importance of lived experience in policy development:

4.1 The co-design group should include several individuals with lived experience of persistent poverty and not be confined to those organisations providing services, or which advocate, campaign and speak on their behalf.

4.3 That, specifically, the voices of children and young people also be directly heard within the process.

Any proposal for a fixed crossing should include extensive community engagement from both sides of the lough, with particular attention to understanding the impacts on those experiencing poverty.

4.4 Comprehensive Economic Assessment

In line with the Panel’s recommendation to audit the “costs of poverty,” any economic assessment of the crossing should:

4.16 The APS should quantify total objective need by auditing the ‘costs of poverty’ – that is, the additional public service costs of poverty – and by estimating the expenditure required to end household poverty based on the recommendations in this report.

This should include estimating how a fixed crossing might reduce:

• Healthcare costs through improved emergency access
• Employment support costs through increased labor market opportunities
• Educational costs through more efficient school transportation and reduced absenteeism

5. Conclusion

A fixed crossing over Strangford Lough could potentially align with several key objectives of the Anti-Poverty Strategy, particularly regarding regional balance, employment access, healthcare access, and educational opportunity. However, any such project would need to be designed with careful consideration of its financing model, environmental impact, and direct benefits to those experiencing poverty.

If Ministers wish to progress this proposal further, it is recommended that a comprehensive feasibility study be commissioned that explicitly evaluates the crossing against anti-poverty objectives and incorporates the lived experience of communities on both sides of the lough.

The experiences of the Cleddau Bridge in Wales provide a valuable reference point for understanding potential benefits, while the recommendations of the Expert Advisory Panel on Anti-Poverty Strategy offer important principles for ensuring any major infrastructure project contributes to reducing poverty and inequality in Northern Ireland.