CURRENT DfI THINKING ON TRANSPORT STRATEGY 2035 & IMPLICATIONS FOR SLC

Reference: Transport Strategy 2035 Policy Framework Assessment

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

DfI’s Transport Strategy 2035 represents a paradigm shift from traditional predict-and-provide transport planning to a “vision and validate” approach focused on sustainability, decarbonisation, and social inclusion. This strategic reorientation has significant implications for infrastructure projects like the Strangford Lough Crossing.

CORE DfI STRATEGIC FRAMEWORK

Transport Vision 2035: “To provide a sustainable, safe, accessible and effective transport system which meets the region’s climate change requirements, serves the needs of urban and rural communities, and supports economic growth.”

Four Strategic Priorities:

1. Resilient and Sustainable Transport (Carbon Focus)

  • Legal Framework: Climate Change Act (NI) 2022 – net zero by 2050
  • Transport Emissions: 18% of all NI emissions (second largest sector after agriculture)
  • Critical Policy Shift: All transport decisions must “proportionately demonstrate how they contribute to the wider transport decarbonisation programme”
  • Geographic Recognition: “Not all places will be able to decarbonise in the same way and at the same pace”

2. Connected and Inclusive Communities

  • Equity Focus: Address transport disadvantage affecting 24% of disability households without car access
  • Rural Connectivity: Explicit commitment to serve both urban and rural communities
  • Integration Priority: Transport and land use planning integration

3. Safe and Healthy Transport

  • Active Travel Promotion: Counter 70% car dependency (highest in UK)
  • Health Integration: Address rising obesity (28% adult rate) and mental health challenges
  • Safety Requirements: Essential for encouraging modal shift

4. Green Growth Support

  • Economic Integration: Transport as economic enabler
  • Innovation Focus: Technology integration and intelligent transport systems

KEY POLICY IMPLICATIONS FOR STRANGFORD LOUGH CROSSING

Supportive Elements:

1. Rural Connectivity Commitment

  • Strategy explicitly recognises need to “serve the needs of rural communities”
  • Eastern Transport Plan covers Ards and North Down Borough Council area (includes Portaferry)
  • Recognition that rural areas may decarbonise “at different pace”

2. Economic Growth Integration

  • Transport positioned as enabler of economic growth
  • Infrastructure investment to support regional balance

3. Vision and Validate Approach

  • Move away from traditional cost-benefit analysis toward strategic vision alignment
  • “Evidence-based decision making” includes broader sustainability metrics

Challenging Elements:

1. Decarbonisation Requirements

  • All new infrastructure must demonstrate contribution to transport decarbonisation
  • Permanent crossing would need to show net carbon reduction vs ferry operations
  • Infrastructure embodied carbon considerations

2. Modal Shift Priority

  • Strong emphasis on reducing car dependency
  • Preference for active travel and public transport over road infrastructure

STRATEGIC ALIGNMENT OPPORTUNITIES

Carbon Case Development:

  • Ferry Replacement Argument: Permanent crossing potentially eliminates daily ferry emissions and waiting vehicle emissions
  • Regional Balance: Improved connectivity supports economic development in underserved rural area
  • Resilience Enhancement: Climate-resilient permanent crossing vs weather-dependent ferry service

Integration with Strategic Priorities:

  • Priority 1: Demonstrate carbon reduction through ferry service replacement
  • Priority 2: Enhanced rural community connectivity and inclusion
  • Priority 4: Economic growth enablement through improved accessibility

CROSS-REFERENCED POLICY ALIGNMENT

Supporting Framework Integration:

  • Programme for Government: Nine societal outcomes include transport’s role in healthy, safe, inclusive communities
  • Eastern Transport Plan Vision: “Integrated and re-balanced transport network in favour of sustainable, efficient modes”
  • UN Sustainable Development Goals: Strategy explicitly mapped to international targets

STRATEGIC POSITIONING RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Carbon Leadership Narrative Position Strangford Lough Crossing as pioneering rural decarbonisation project demonstrating innovative approach to emissions reduction through infrastructure rationalisation.

2. Inclusive Connectivity Framework Emphasise project’s role in addressing transport disadvantage in rural communities, supporting DfI’s equity objectives.

3. Vision and Validate Alignment Frame project within strategic vision for enhanced regional connectivity rather than traditional traffic demand justification.

BOTTOM LINE ASSESSMENT

DfI’s Transport Strategy 2035 represents both opportunity and challenge for the Strangford Lough Crossing project. While the strategy’s rural connectivity commitments and economic growth focus provide supportive framework, the overriding decarbonisation requirements demand robust carbon case development. Success requires positioning the project as exemplar of sustainable rural transport infrastructure rather than traditional road building.

Strategic Recommendation: Develop comprehensive carbon analysis demonstrating net emission reductions through ferry service replacement, positioning project as innovative model for rural transport decarbonisation.

CARBON ANALYSIS – CLIMATE CHANGE ACT COMPLIANCE ASSESSMENT

Reference: Climate Change Act (Northern Ireland) 2022 Compliance Review

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

A comprehensive environmental impact analysis has been published demonstrating that the Strangford Lough Crossing (SLC) would deliver significant carbon emissions reductions ranging from 68.3 to 653.5 tonnes CO2 annually, positioning the project as compliant with Climate Change Act (Northern Ireland) 2022 requirements.

DETAILED CARBON ANALYSIS FINDINGS

Three Emission Reduction Scenarios:

1. Conservative Scenario

  • Annual Car Miles Reduction: 303,343 miles
  • Net CO2 Savings: 68.3 tonnes per year
  • Key Factor: Focuses on essential off-hours trips only

2. Realistic Scenario

  • Annual Car Miles Reduction: 1,493,963 miles
  • Net CO2 Savings: 336.1 tonnes per year
  • Key Factor: Includes moderate behavioural change and commuter patterns

3. Ambitious Scenario

  • Annual Car Miles Reduction: 2,903,975 miles
  • Net CO2 Savings: 653.5 tonnes per year
  • Key Factor: High behavioural change including tourism and frequent travel

TECHNICAL METHODOLOGY ASSESSMENT

Carbon Calculation Framework:

  • Distance Savings: 45.5 miles per crossing (47-mile detour vs 1.5-mile bridge)
  • Emission Factor: 0.225 kg CO2/mile (UK average car standard)
  • Ferry Baseline: ~400 daily one-way trips currently
  • Behavioural Analysis: 25 different traveller types assessed

Induced Demand Accounting:

  • Conservative: +2,190 miles/year (+0.5 tonnes CO2)
  • Realistic: +10,950 miles/year (+2.5 tonnes CO2)
  • Ambitious: +105,850 miles/year (+23.8 tonnes CO2)
  • Net Result: All scenarios show substantial net reductions

CLIMATE CHANGE ACT (NI) 2022 ALIGNMENT

Legal Requirements Assessment:

1. Net Zero Target (2050)

  • SLC demonstrates measurable contribution to decarbonisation pathway
  • Annual savings equivalent to removing 30-290 cars from roads permanently

2. Bridging Targets (2030/2040)

  • Immediate emissions reductions upon bridge opening
  • Cumulative 10-year savings: 683-6,535 tonnes CO2

3. Transport Sector Priority

  • Addresses transport (18% of NI emissions, second largest sector)
  • Directly tackles rural transport emissions challenge

COMPARISON WITH DFI TRANSPORT STRATEGY 2035 REQUIREMENTS

Strategic Alignment Analysis:

“Proportionate Contribution” Test:

  • ✅ PASS: Project demonstrates clear quantifiable emission reductions
  • ✅ PASS: Addresses rural connectivity without impeding wider decarbonisation
  • ✅ PASS: Supports modal efficiency through journey consolidation

“Just Transition” Compliance:

  • ✅ PASS: Rural communities access improved without urban disadvantage
  • ✅ PASS: Ferry workforce transition manageable
  • ✅ PASS: Economic benefits distributed equitably

Infrastructure Decarbonisation Framework:

  • ✅ PASS: Replaces high-emission ferry operations
  • ✅ PASS: Enables electric vehicle adoption through reliable connectivity
  • ✅ PASS: Supports renewable energy access for rural communities

ENVIRONMENTAL SENSITIVITY MITIGATION

Strangford Lough Protected Status Integration:

  • Ecological Designations: MCZ, SAC, SPA, Ramsar Site, ASSI
  • Mitigation Strategy: Seasonal construction timing, minimal benthic impact
  • Monitoring Framework: Environmental Management Programme (EMP)
  • Design Approach: Slender deck, minimal pier footprint

Carbon vs. Ecology Balance:

  • Net Positive: Carbon savings (653.5 tonnes/year) vs construction emissions
  • Long-term Benefit: Permanent emission reductions over 100+ year asset life
  • Climate Resilience: Sea level rise adaptation built into design

STRATEGIC CASE STUDIES INTEGRATION

GAA Centre of Excellence (Ballykinlar) Analysis:

  • Coach Transport Benefits: Replaces 15-20 individual car journeys per event
  • Rural Sports Connectivity: Enhanced access for Ards Peninsula clubs
  • Community Transport Model: Demonstrates sustainable travel patterns

CROSS-REFERENCED POLICY COMPLIANCE

Sub-Regional Economic Plan Alignment:

  • Ards & North Down: Currently underperforming economically (7 tonnes CO2 per capita vs 9.8 NI average)
  • Decarbonisation Priority: Council committed to net zero targets
  • Regional Balance: Addresses productivity gaps through improved connectivity

TECHNICAL VALIDATION ASSESSMENT

Methodology Strengths:

  • ✅ Comprehensive behavioural analysis (25 traveller types)
  • ✅ Conservative assumptions prevent over-estimation
  • ✅ Accounts for induced demand effects
  • ✅ Uses standard UK emission factors
  • ✅ Integrated environmental impact assessment

Areas for Further Development:

  • Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) of construction materials required
  • Electric vehicle adoption trajectory modelling
  • Ferry decommissioning emission savings quantification

BOTTOM LINE ASSESSMENT

The carbon analysis provides robust evidence that the Strangford Lough Crossing would deliver substantial carbon emission reductions (68-654 tonnes CO2/year) while complying with Climate Change Act (Northern Ireland) 2022 requirements. This technical foundation directly addresses DfI Transport Strategy 2035 concerns about infrastructure projects demonstrating “proportionate contribution to wider transport decarbonisation programme.”

Strategic Recommendation: The carbon analysis provides compelling technical evidence for positioning SLC as exemplar climate-compliant rural infrastructure project, addressing both Transport Strategy decarbonisation requirements and legal obligations under Climate Change Act (NI) 2022.